El Niño's storm-killer winds and climate's warming waters in fight over future of Hurricane Isaias

A supersized El Niño's decapitating winds and the Gulf of Mexico's toasty, storm-fueling waters are battling over the future strength of Hurricane Isaias. And the storm's tilt and eye show who's winning.

All Atlantic hurricane season there has been "this battle between shear and just the overall conducive conditions," said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

El Niño – the natural temporary warming of parts of the Pacific that warps weather worldwide – dominated. Its wind patterns smothered almost any wisp of a storm from strengthening in the Atlantic while boosting what will soon be record high levels in the Pacific, Klotzbach said.

Read more: Super El Nino event formed in September, China's National Climate Center says

It's called wind shear, and it pushes the tops and middle of storms around, making them lopsided and keeping them from making a complete circular eyewall, which is when storms can really power up, Klotzbach and University at Albany's Kristen Corbosiero said.

The other ingredients for a storm to turbocharge a storm are pushing back. There is plenty of fuel in warm water and moisture. The Gulf of Mexico is about 2.7 degrees (1.5 degrees Celsius) warmer than normal. The 86-degree waters (30 degrees Celsius) are 100 to 500 times more likely to be that extra hot because of climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas, said climate scientist Kristina Dahl, vice president of the nonprofit Climate Central, which calculates the boost global warming causes to extreme weather.

"The warm waters and high moisture won," Klotzbach said. Isaias is likely losing its tilt and straightening and flying right and strong.

Before Isaias comes ashore – forecast for probably late Friday night or early Saturday – the wind shear will strengthen from moderate levels of around 20 mph (32 kph) to 52 mph (84 kph), and then Isaias will start to struggle, which is good news for coastal residents, Klotzbach said.