Experts urge preparedness for extreme weather amid super El Nino

Chinese meteorological experts have called for stronger measures to guard against extreme weather, abrupt transitions between drought and flooding, and unusual rainfall as a super El Nino is expected to have a greater impact in the coming months and into 2027.

According to monitoring by the China National Climate Center, a super El Nino event formed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in September. Sea surface temperatures in the region are expected to continue rising over the next three months, potentially peaking in late autumn or early winter.

Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster at the climate center, said the event had developed unusually rapidly and could surpass previous records in intensity. El Nino does not directly cause individual extreme weather events, but alters atmospheric circulation patterns and increases the likelihood of certain weather extremes.

China is likely to experience an overall warmer-than-normal winter, Zhao said, noting that this would not rule out strong cold waves or sharp temperature fluctuations.

Xu Xiaofeng, president of the China Meteorological Service Association, stressed that the impacts of a super El Nino could become more pronounced in spring and summer next year, warranting greater attention to potential extreme rainfall and regional disasters.

He called for heightened vigilance against three types of weather risks: extreme events, abrupt shifts and unusual weather patterns.

Abrupt transitions between drought and flooding could pose serious challenges, particularly when heavy rain or typhoons strike areas already grappling with water shortages, he warned, while rainfall that might be manageable in some regions could trigger disasters in areas with limited capacity to withstand it, especially mountainous parts of northwestern China.

Xu also highlighted the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure, warning that even relatively moderate weather events could cause significant damage in areas with inadequate protection.

He urged meteorological authorities to improve progressive forecasting and early-warning services, while calling on local governments and relevant departments to translate climate outlooks into targeted risk prevention measures.

Experts stressed that disaster preparedness should look beyond seasonal averages and focus on the timing, intensity and sudden changes of weather events, with particular attention to vulnerable communities and infrastructure.