'Off-the-charts' El Niño could spark global economic crisis, UN warns

An exceptionally powerful El Niño could drive Pacific Ocean temperatures to unprecedented levels, triggering extreme heat, droughts and floods worldwide.

The damage won't stop on the front lines, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher warned, predicting global economic shocks and "further conflict, displacement, migration." 

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could spike up to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average between November 2026 and January 2027. With the peak around December, it would be the highest measurement since records began, eclipsing the record of 2.6 degrees set in 2015-2016, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Seasonal Climate Update released Wednesday.

"The current El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength – literally, off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Past events with 3-degree anomalies already caused "very substantive" disruptions, she added. "We are beyond that limit, out of our records, out of our statistics of what we can expect." Extreme weather events will only multiply as the phenomenon develops, she warned.

El Niño is a natural cycle occurring every two to seven years, typically lasting 9-12 months, though its impacts linger. The resulting extremes imperil housing, water, sanitation and health services. Southern Africa faces rising flood risks from November, Southeast Asia confronts agricultural and water shortages, and Latin America braces for heavy rainfall.

Dubbing the event a "behemoth" and a "wrecking ball," Fletcher warned that around 50 million people face increased hunger. Calling the next two weeks critical, he flagged urgent needs – from emergency supplies in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya to seeds and livestock in southern Africa and cyclone readiness in the Asia-Pacific.

"We cannot stop El Niño," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo concluded, "but we can prevent many of its worst human consequences." 

In response, the UN released $50 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund for 11 frontline nations, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.

(With input from agencies)