Editor's note: Zhou Zhiwei is the director of the Department of International Relations of the Institute of Latin American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and director of Center for Brazilian Studies. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva staged a comeback victory in the presidential runoff on October 25, defeating Liberal Party candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, who led in the first round, to secure a fourth term in office.

This has been one of the most fiercely contested presidential elections in Brazil in recent decades; its outcome carries significant weight for Brazil, and its implications for Latin America and the Global South should likewise not be underestimated.

The 2026 Brazilian general election has garnered international attention, reflecting the fact that it concerns not only the trajectory of Brazil's domestic political landscape but also carries regional and global implications that cannot be overlooked.

First, the two candidates possess unique profiles. The contenders who reached the second round of the presidential election are Lula, representing the Workers' Party (PT), and Flavio Bolsonaro, representing the Liberal Party (PL). The former serves as a flag-bearer for the left in Brazil; this marks his seventh presidential bid. The latter is the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, effectively stepping in for his father to carry the banner of the right-wing.

Since 2018, Lula and Jair Bolsonaro have been the two central figures in Brazil's increasingly polarized presidential politics. Jair Bolsonaro won the 2018 presidential election, while Lula defeated him in 2022. The 2026 contest therefore represented a significant political continuation of that rivalry, with Flavio Bolsonaro seeking to carry his father's political legacy forward against Lula. In this sense, the 2026 election can be viewed as a decisive test of whether the political forces associated with Lula or Bolsonaro would prevail in shaping Brazil's next political cycle.

Furthermore, the presidential race remained highly competitive throughout the campaign. Both pre-election polls and the results of the first round indicated that the two candidates were evenly matched, with the gap in their support and share of votes consistently falling within the margin of error.

Although the first-round results defied the vast majority of polling forecasts, the narrow margin of 1.87 percentage points underscored just how tight the race was; the question of who would ultimately emerge victorious was, in itself, a compelling focal point.

Moreover, the outcome of Brazil's election is likely to influence the political trajectory of the entire Latin American region. Over the past three years, the political landscape in Latin America has shown a persistent shift toward the right; in essence, the Brazilian election represented a high-stakes contest over the future development path of both Brazil and Latin America as a whole.

In addition, interference from the United States introduced further uncertainty into the election. By intervening systematically across the judicial, economic and security spheres, the US sought to influence the direction of the Brazilian election. This added external variables to the process and imbued the election with an additional dimension: the defense of national autonomy, a factor that inevitably heightened the attention of the international community.

Moving from a 1.87 percentage-point deficit in the first round to a 3.58 percentage-point lead in the second, Lula's victory broke the precedent that no Brazilian presidential candidate had ever managed a comeback since the country's return to democracy. This win signals a period of dominance for the political left in Brazil and suggests a temporary check on the "shift to the right" seen across Latin America.

Although Flavio Bolsonaro was defeated in the presidential race, right-wing forces achieved sweeping victories in gubernatorial and parliamentary elections. Most notably, the Liberal Party to which Flavio belongs, emerged as the largest party in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.

Overall, the fundamental standoff between the left and the right has not been fundamentally altered by this single election. Over the next four years, Lula will have to contend with persistent checks from right-wing parties in Congress and across broader society; and the struggle between the two sides over legislative control and public opinion is likely to define the entirety of Lula's fourth term.

In terms of domestic and foreign policies of Brazil, Lula is anticipated to continue the direction he has pursued since taking office in 2023. Economically, his administration aims to strengthen state intervention in the economy, while seeking to maintain fiscal sustainability by effectively implementing its tax reforms, balancing the green transition with agricultural exports, increasing investment in infrastructure and advancing a strategy of "re-industrialization."

On the social front, the government will likely maintain social welfare programs while boosting investment in key sectors such as education and healthcare, promoting racial and gender equality, and working to bridge social divisions. Diplomatically, the Lula administration will uphold a policy of strategic autonomy and prioritize "South-South cooperation." It opposes a "bloc-based confrontation" mentality, advocates for a diversified and balanced foreign policy, seeks to advance regional integration in Latin America, actively engages in BRICS cooperation, and serves as a voice for the Global South within international multilateral frameworks such as the United Nations and the G20.

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