Americans go to the polls in states across the US on Tuesday to elect new representatives, senators and governors, as well as to vote on down-ballot representatives and initiatives. In fact, early voting began in many states several weeks ago and as of the weekend, more than 50 million people had already participated, around 8 million more than at the same stage in 2022.

The elections for Congress, where federal laws are written and budgets authorized, are potentially hugely consequential. The Republicans currently hold a trifecta – control of the White House and both houses of Congress – but a Democrat majority in the House of Representatives or Senate, or both, would constrain the Trump administration’s domestic agenda and could lead to a greater focus on foreign policy. 

What’s the state of play?

The US midterm elections include all seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and the governorships of 36 states. 

In the 435-seat House of Representatives, the Republicans currently hold a slim advantage with 218 to the Democrats’ 214 (there is also one independent and two seats are vacant). Members of the House are elected en masse every two years.

In the Senate, Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage, meaning Democrats need to gain a net four seats to take control of the chamber, given that Republican Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie. Of the 35 seats up for re-election, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13 – giving the Republicans an incumbency advantage in this cycle.

If the Democrats can hold their 13 seats, they must flip at least four from the Republicans. If the Republicans flip a Democrat seat, the Democrats must take five from the Republicans.

There will also be elections for governor in 36 of the 50 states, as well as for state and local leaders and ballots on initiatives that could change state laws or constitutions.

What are the key races?

With the House widely expected to fall into Democratic hands – CNN’s aggregation of generic ballot polls, which asks which party a voter prefers, gives the Democrats a nine-point lead – the most closely watched races are the cluster that could decide control of the Senate and those featuring potential 2028 presidential candidates.

Alaska (currently Republican): Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to represent the state in the House of Representatives, is taking on sitting Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. The race is at the center of controversy after a New York Times report suggested the Democratic campaign recruited another Dan Sullivan to put his name on the ballot, potentially drawing votes from the Republican.

Georgia (currently Democrat): Democrat Jon Ossoff’s campaign style and poll lead have put him at the front of the pack among presidential contenders. He is expected to win re-election, beating Republican Mike Collins, in a state which has trended Republican over the past two decades.

Kansas (currently Republican): Incumbent Senator Roger Marshall is in a tight race with Democrat Adam Hamilton, the founder of the largest Methodist Church in the US, in a historically deep red state. Hamilton would be the first Democrat to represent Kansas since 1932. 

Iowa (currently Republican): Republicans have not lost in a Senate race in Iowa since 2008, but with Joni Ernst retiring the Democrats have an opening. Josh Turek, a state representative with two Paralympic gold medals to his name, is competing with Ashley Hinson, a Republican member of the House who has been endorsed by Trump, for the seat.

Maine (currently Republican): Susan Collins is defending the Senate seat she first won for the Republicans in 1996. She historically outperforms other Republicans in the state – the other Senate seat is held by a Democrat and the state hasn’t backed a Republican for president since 1988. But could this be one race too many? Democrat hopes rest on Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president, who was chosen after the original nominee, Graham Platner, was forced to withdraw.

Michigan (currently Democrat): Democrats haven’t lost a Senate race in Michigan since 1994, but the contest between progressive Abdul El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim senator if elected, and Republican Mike Rogers is neck and neck. In a late twist, Haley Stevens, who lost out to El-Sayed for the Democratic nomination, endorsed Rogers over the weekend. 

New Hampshire (currently Democrat): With incumbent Jeanne Shaheen not running for re-election, the race between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu is a toss-up. Pappas is a four-term congressman while Sununu is a former senator and part of a New Hampshire political dynasty – his brother and father have both served as governor.

North Carolina (currently Republican): Democrats are confident of flipping North Carolina, having persuaded popular former Governor Roy Cooper to run for the Senate. He is competing against Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman and close ally of President Donald Trump.

Ohio (currently Republican): Sherrod Brown, a veteran Democrat senator who lost his seat two years ago, is running for Ohio’s other Senate seat, challenging Republican incumbent Jon Husted, who was appointed as Vance’s replacement when he became vice president. 

Texas (currently Republican): The Democrats have fallen narrowly short of winning statewide in Texas several times in recent years. Could 2026 be their year? It certainly looks to be their best chance: a moderate candidate, James Talarico, against Ken Paxton, a Republican with high name recognition and a colorful history.

What are the latest trends?

Midterm elections are seen as a referendum on the party in power, and the verdict is rarely an endorsement. Only three times since the American Civil War (1861-1865) has a White House party not lost seats in the House of Representatives, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.

With Trump’s approval ratings at historically low levels and amid frustration over the cost of living, the conditions appear favorable for the Democrats. The Democratic brand, however, is also extremely unpopular with voters, polls suggest, though individual candidates are polling strongly.

Early voting far outpaces the same point in the 2022 cycle, breaking records across the country, and turnout has been stronger among Democrats. According to University of Florida data, Democrats have cast 43% of the early votes, Republicans 31% and citizens with no party affiliation 25%.

The cost of living, inflation, housing, healthcare, jobs and data centers are among the key issues of concern cited in polls, while the extent of money in politics is also getting attention.

Over $10 billion has been spent on advertising during the midterm cycle as of last week, according to media tracking group AdImpact, which forecasts a $11.6 billion total by election day. Elon Musk has given upwards of $445 million to Republican-aligned political action committees and groups since last year, according to US Federal Election Commission data as of October 29. 

Why are the results important?

A president holds significant executive power, but laws and budgets have to be approved by Congress before they can be implemented.

A decade ago, a divided government – different parties controlling different parts – could mean constructive compromise, but since the 1990s, it has more often led to gridlock.

If the Democrats do take control of Congress, they’ll have greater capacity to shape the domestic agenda, control federal spending and frustrate the White House. In turn, this could lead the executive branch to focus more on foreign policy, where Congress has less authority to intervene.

A Democratic-majority House could also use its committees to investigate the Trump administration, while a Senate controlled by the Democrats could not only block legislation but also reject presidential nominees, from judges to cabinet officials.