Editor's note: Cao Cong, a special commentator for CGTN, is a doctoral candidate at the School of Global and Regional Studies, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

A year has passed since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's erroneous claim that a "Taiwan contingency" could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan. Tokyo has neither withdrawn the remarks nor meaningfully corrected them. This diplomatic evasion has accompanied an accelerating military buildup, exposing a dangerous tendency among Japan's right-wing forces to exploit regional tensions to dismantle postwar military restraints.

The gravity of Takaichi's erroneous remarks lies in their direct connection between China's internal affairs and Japan's exercise of collective self-defense. They sent a dangerous signal that Japan might intervene militarily over the Taiwan question. Behind this stance is a political calculation: appeasing right-wing supporters at home while evading responsibility abroad.

In Takaichi's view, admitting error would undermine her justification for using the Taiwan question to advance a hardline agenda.She therefore expresses willingness to engage in dialogue while refusing to address the root causes of the deteriorating relations. Dialogue requires sincerity; better relations require action. No amount of diplomatic rhetoric can restore trust if the party responsible refuses to correct its mistakes.

Calls for Takaichi to confront the problem have also come from within Japanese politics. In September, former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama told the Beijing Xiangshan Forum that Takaichi's remarks on the Taiwan question departed from Japan's established position and should be withdrawn. Speaking to reporters following his visit to China, former Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya said on October 2 that Japan had caused the deterioration in bilateral relations and should work seriously to repair ties and dispel mistrust.

These statements show that the source of the problem is understood within Japan itself. Takaichi's continued insistence of her administration's unchanged position does little to ease doubts about its intentions.

A review of Japan's security policy developments over the past year reveals that its remilitarization has materialized in a series of breakthroughs in budgeting, military equipment and institutional frameworks. Its defense-related budget for fiscal 2026 exceeded 9 trillion yen (about $56.79 billion), a record high.

On March 31, Japan deployed the Type-25 surface-to-ship missile (SSM) in Kumamoto Prefecture and the Type-25 Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile in Shizuoka Prefecture. The Type-25 SSM has a range of about 1,000 kilometers – well beyond Japanese territory – and can reach parts of the Chinese mainland coast. These deployments marked Japan’s first acquisition of what it calls "counterstrike capabilities," signaling a shift in its exclusively defense-oriented policy and underscoring the danger of its growing emphasis on long-range strikes.

Restrictions on arms exports have also been further dismantled. On April 21, Japan revised its Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and their implementation guidelines. It removed restrictions that generally limited exports of finished equipment to five categories, including rescue and transport. The changes allow lethal weapons exports to eligible countries in principle, with exceptions permitting transfers to countries involved in conflicts.

Japan has also strengthened the intelligence apparatus supporting its security policy. On July 31, it established the National Intelligence Bureau, replacing the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office. The new body operates directly under the prime minister's office, bringing together intelligence from across government and coordinating agencies' intelligence activities. Against the backdrop of Japan's military buildup, this concentration of intelligence and coordination functions can be seen as institutional support for a more assertive security strategy.

Even more alarming is the Japanese government's push to revise its three key security documents by the end of the year. At related meetings, Takaichi has stressed the need to sustain prolonged combat operations. Calls to reconsider the Three Non-Nuclear Principles – not to possess, produce or permit the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japanese territory – have also persisted, with an unnamed senior security official in the prime minister's office reported in December 2025 to have advocated Japan acquiring nuclear weapons.

The combined effects of long-range weapons deployments, expanded arms sales and strengthened military cooperation among allies will inevitably heighten security concerns among neighboring countries and fuel an arms race. While Japan claims these measures are intended to maintain peace, they continually fuel regional tensions, raising the question of whom its security policies truly serve.

The Taiwan question is clearly a matter of China's internal affairs. The Cairo Declaration stipulated that Taiwan, which Japan had stolen, should be restored to China. Article 8 of the Potsdam Proclamation reaffirmed that "the terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out." Japan pledged to fulfill the proclamation's provisions in its Instrument of Surrender and reaffirmed its adherence to Article 8 in the 1972 Joint Statement of the Government of the People’s Republic of China and the Government of Japan.

Japan subjected the Taiwan region to half a century of colonial rule. For its leader to link the Taiwan question once again to Japanese military action revives painful memories across Asia and challenges the outcomes of the victory over fascism.

A year has made one thing clear: Evasion deepens divisions, and refusing to correct mistakes erodes credibility. Japan should withdraw its erroneous remarks on the Taiwan question, honor the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, and take concrete steps to curb military expansion. Only by facing up to its history of aggression, respecting China's sovereignty and adhering to peaceful development can Japan truly earn the trust of its neighbors.

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