Clean energy is strengthening China's energy security

Editor's note: Qin Qi is a China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has put China's energy security to the test. While the country relied on short-term measures to cushion the immediate shock, years of investment in electric vehicles (EVs) and clean power have helped reduce its exposure to volatile international fossil-fuel markets.

China's immediate response to the Hormuz shock relied partly on inventory adjustments, refining and trade. In the six months following the onset of the crisis (March–August 2026), reduced crude stockpiling accounted for about 47% of the year-on-year decline in net crude imports. Refiners processed less crude, while lower fuel exports helped cushion the impact on domestic supply. These measures provided short-term relief, but could not sustainably reduce China's dependence on imported oil.  

EVs, by contrast, offer more lasting savings. Between March and August, China's EV fleet displaced an estimated 38 million tonnes of oil equivalent, an amount comparable to 13% of crude imports in the same months of 2025. These vehicles allowed people and goods to keep moving while using less oil. Their contribution reflects years of investment, rather than an emergency response to the crisis.

Clean power provided further sustainable protection. Growth in non-fossil generation since 2020 helped China avoid an estimated $9.1 billion in fossil-fuel import costs during those same six months, more than any other country, primarily by reducing coal and gas requirements. As more vehicles run on electricity, continued growth in clean generation can meet their charging needs without a matching increase in fossil-fuel consumption.  

Coal has long been central to China's energy security strategy, but the Hormuz shock did not trigger a broad acceleration in coal consumption. Between March and August 2026, China's combined domestic coal production and net imports fell by 3.4% year on year. In the power sector, gas-fired generation fell by around 7 terawatt-hours (TWh), while hydro, nuclear, wind and solar generation increased by a combined 139 TWh. Coal-fired generation remained broadly flat. Even in the coal chemicals sector, where some had expected demand to rise in response to the crisis, coal consumption growth slowed.

The 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030) offers an opportunity to make this protection more durable. To meet the growth in electricity demand projected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) without increasing fossil-fuel generation, annual clean electricity supply in 2030 would need to be around 2,600 TWh higher than in 2025. Under those assumptions, non-fossil sources would provide about 54% of electricity, above the 15th energy five-year plan's 50% target. Delivering that electricity requires investment in both generation and the systems that enable its use. Better grid transmission and storage can help reduce renewable power curtailment. Power market reform should support that flexibility and allow clean generation to displace fossil fuels.

Faster transport electrification would extend the savings. We estimate that adding 40 million EVs beyond the IEA's pre-crisis baseline by 2030 could save around 45 million tonnes of oil annually. That would help offset a recovery in oil demand. Plastic recycling and cleaner chemical feedstocks also deserve support, as growth in petrochemical demand can offset the fall in transport fuel consumption.

China can build on these gains by sustaining domestic clean-energy investment while helping other countries reduce their dependence on fossil fuels through clean-technology exports. Chinese solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles are helping countries reduce their exposure to volatile international energy markets while cutting emissions. If current export trends continue, clean technologies exported by China in 2026 could avoid around 450 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually once deployed, roughly equivalent to Brazil's annual fossil-fuel emissions.