Russia-Ukraine-US peace talks begin in Abu Dhabi, hopes for breakthrough remain low

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the first day of the trilateral peace talks among Russia, the United States and Ukraine was "constructive," though no further details of the discussions have been made public.

Meanwhile, Europe is seeking a role in the negotiations as the talks get underway in Abu Dhabi. However, an expert says the talks are unlikely to yield substantial progress, given the wide gaps between the parties' positions and priorities.

Leadership reactions to the progress of the meeting

Following the first day of trilateral meetings, the leaders of Ukraine and the US special envoys have both called the talks "constructive," while Russian officials remain cautious about giving an assessment of the progress. 

Zelenskyy said the talks were "constructive and quite substantive," adding that they covered humanitarian and security issues.

Speaking to reporters later in Denmark, Zelenskyy said he was pleased with messages he had been receiving from the two US presidential envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

"I see changes. I am very happy about what I hear," Zelenskyy said.

"The release of prisoners (of war) is a priority. They spoke in detail about the substance of security guarantees for Ukraine and the ​foundations for ensuring these guarantees function over the long term," he posted on X.

Kushner wrote on X after the first day wrapped up that he was "encouraged by ⁠the constructive discussions today." 

He said the US side was working to end the war and "establish the security arrangements necessary for a sovereign, secure, and prosperous ​Ukraine and lasting peace across Europe."

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov struck a more cautious note, saying it was too early to assess the meeting ahead of a second ​day of talks on Wednesday.

Europe seeks greater involvement

Meanwhile, Europe is seeking a greater role in the peace negotiations, which could reshape the region's security framework.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday that the European Union (EU) would be present while the Kremlin said the core negotiations would involve Russia, Ukraine and the United States. The exact format of European participation remained unclear.

Euronews reported on Monday that concerns were growing in European capitals that decisions on the continent's security could be made without their involvement.

Expert doubts prospects for significant progress

Assessing the prospects for the peace talks, Su Xiaohui, director of the Department for Developing Countries Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said the results of the US midterm election has added uncertainty to the outlook.

Su said the Republican Party's setbacks in the midterm elections have left the US administration eager to shift domestic attention away from the Iran issue and the stalemate between Washington and Tehran. 

The administration has sought to draw public attention to the prospect of progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the near term, Su observed. However, by reducing the regional conflict to personal differences between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, the US risks oversimplifying the issue and rushing the process, which will do little to ease the challenges of resolving the crisis down the road, she added. 

Su also highlighted the different asks of Russia, the US and Ukraine, expressing doubts about the possibility of any substantial progress. 

Ukraine is looking ahead to January 3, 2027, when the new US Congress takes office, in the hope of securing increased military aid. Russia, meanwhile, sees this transitional period as a window of opportunity to push for a reset in US-Russia relations. 

"The US is eager to secure a quick outcome but has neither the intention nor the capacity to address the underlying issues," Su commented. "As a result, expectations for a substantive breakthrough from the resumption of trilateral talks remain low." 

(With input from agencies)