The ASEAN International Media Center in Manila, the Philippines, November 12, 2026. /Xinhua
Editor's note: Imran Khalid, a special commentator for CGTN, is a freelance columnist on international affairs. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang's route to Manila via Bangkok says something about how China and Southeast Asia now do business. In the Thai capital on November 13, he and Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul saw eight cooperation documents get signed. They included new protocols for Thai durian and salak to enter the Chinese market and a framework for cooperation on electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries. While fruit protocols will not lead the coverage of the 29th China-ASEAN Summit that kicks off in Manila today, they are still the kind of outcome the meeting exists to produce.
Mutual trust keeps a ledger. China's trade with ASEAN reached 7.68 trillion yuan ($1.15 trillion) in the first 10 months of this year, up 24.2% and faster than the 20% growth in China's overall foreign trade. Last year two-way trade crossed $1 trillion for the first time.
ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for six consecutive years, and China has remained ASEAN's largest trading partner for 17 consecutive years. Cumulative two-way investment has passed $515 billion. Trade of this size is not a mood. It is a habit, built over 16 years of a free trade area (FTA) and a comprehensive strategic partnership that turns five this year.
Manila's main business is to turn that habit into rules. The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 Upgrade Protocol (CAFTA 3.0), signed in Kuala Lumpur last October, adds nine new chapters covering the digital economy, the green economy, supply chain connectivity, standards and customs procedures. Seven ASEAN members had completed their domestic procedures by August, and the protocol takes effect within 60 days once China completes its own.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has said Beijing would use the summit to bring the protocol into force "as early as possible," and to deepen cooperation in artificial intelligence (AI), digital economy, energy security, connectivity and poverty reduction. Both already have a joint plan of action for 2026-2030. This suits ASEAN which needs trading rules for industries that barely existed when the original FTA was negotiated.
Three corridors show how the partnership performs.
First, the China-Laos Railway. Since December 2021 it has carried over 73 million passengers, and by July it had moved over 20 million tonnes of cross-border freight. The value of goods it handled in the first half of this year rose 33.8% year on year to $2.53 billion. A freight train carrying Thai durians now takes about 26 hours to reach Kunming in southwest China. Laos once counted its geography as a handicap. It now sells it as a transit route.
Second, Indonesia's Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway, known as Whoosh. In three years it has handled more than 18 million passenger trips at an on-time rate of 99.4%, cutting a journey of over three hours to 46 minutes. The argument over whether Southeast Asia needed high-speed rail has been settled at the ticket counter.
An aerial drone photo shows a high-speed electrical multiple unit train leaving the Tegalluar Station of the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Bandung, Indonesia, May 20, 2025. /Xinhua
Third, Malaysia's East Coast Rail Link (ECRL). The 519-kilometer main track was finished ahead of schedule in March, and commercial service is due in January 2027. China Communications Construction Co. has pledged 12 million yuan to train 3,200 Malaysians for its operation and maintenance. The line will be run by people who learned the trade on it.
The host country has its own example under construction. The Samal Island-Davao City Connector, a four-lane bridge financed with Chinese development assistance, is more than 65% complete and due in 2029. At its groundbreaking, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. called China a "dependable partner."
Since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed in late February, Southeast Asia has paid for its dependence on a single waterway. The Middle East supplies about 60% of the region's crude imports, according to the International Energy Agency, and diesel prices in Laos rose nearly 50% in under a week. China's exports of EVs, photovoltaic products and lithium batteries rose 46.5% in the first 10 months. The automotive framework signed in Bangkok covers exactly those vehicles and batteries. Oil has to pass through Hormuz. Sunlight does not.
Friction, where it appears, has been resolved with wider access. When orchards in Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam outgrew demand this summer, China's durian imports still rose 47% in the first half of this year. The protocol signed on November 13 extends the same logic to Thailand's next harvest.
Interdependence on this scale is part and parcel of regional stability. Governments that share rail timetables, customs rules and supply chains have more to lose from confrontation and more channels through which to settle differences. If the leaders leave with a firm path to bring CAFTA 3.0 into force, its chapters on digital trade and customs could be working by the time the first ECRL passenger trains pull out in January. That would give the partnership's sixth year a better measure than any communique: goods cleared faster, and trains that run on time.
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