Opinion: Ignore Trump, listen to Mattis and Tillerson on DPRK

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Are we facing a nuclear war in the Asia Pacific region? This is the question repeatedly asked these days, and it's not surprising. The last few days have been most jarring, with bewildered experts trying to make sense of it all and wondering how things could get so bad.

To begin with, the DPRK, facing overwhelming UN sanctions, universally condemned by the Security Council, even by its supposed allies Russia and China, now stands isolated in the world, which is only increasing its bellicosity and leads it to continue missile test launches.

US President Donald Trump on his way to the office, August 14, 2017. /Xinhua Photo

Then President Donald Trump stepped up to declare: "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury the like of which the world has never seen."

Even in the context of Trump Tweets, the words were extreme, and not the type of language one hears from a head of state or in the diplomatic community at large. It later transpired that he'd made the statement without consulting any of his aides.

They caught everyone by surprise, with Senator John McCain saying in an interview: "The great leaders I've seen don't threaten unless they're ready to act and I'm not sure President Trump is ready to act."

Trump's words only incited further hostility from the DPRK, including a threat to launch missiles at the strategic American island of Guam in the mid-Pacific.

If you want an American voice of reason on the DPRK, listen to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, or Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. Consider carefully the latter's statement that "the DPRK must choose to stop isolating itself and stand down its pursuit of nuclear weapons… that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people."

Mattis also said, "The DPRK regime's actions will continue to be grossly overmatched by ours and it would lose in any arms race or conflict it might initiate."

The two most important words are the last two, indicating three things.

Local residents pray during a Sunday mass at Sta Barbara Church on the island of Guam, a US Pacific Territory, August 13, 2017. /Reuters Photo

First, the huge firepower of the United States is only for deterrent purposes. America has no interest in using military means to seek regime change, and it is ready for regime acceptance and wants to negotiate.

Second, in any material or territorial threat to America or its allies in the region, there will be overwhelming retaliation, regardless of the presence of any other great power in the region, such as China and Russia. The US is still the biggest military giant in the region, dwarfing every other power in the theatre of conflict.

Third, conflict can only be initiated by the DPRK, as the US has no interest in such a course; should a conflict be initiated by the DPRK, it is doomed. Mattis and Tillerson are reading from the same page in this regard, showing the administration's adults are thinking.

An aerial view of US Naval Base Guam, September 20, 2006. /Reuters Photo

They are also a hint, not just to the DPRK, but to China.

These are trying times for everyone in the region, and that also includes Japan and the Republic of Korea, who both feel threatened.

The US navy is involved in Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols (FONOPs) in the Asia Pacific region. Amidst the unfolding multifaceted conflict, a bombastic leader like Trump is a liability, as words and miscommunication are the chief cause of conflict.

As the US lacks a direct line of communication and channel to the DPRK, reading between lines has become necessary, and is the only way to soothe tensions in jingoistic times.

It is therefore imperative, to understand the meaning of threats. Trump, as everyone knows, speaks without thinking much. That's his style. What we have to pay heed to are the words of the actual adults under Trump such as Mattis and Tillerson.

Miscommunication leads to war. And war in Asia today will be a thousand times more catastrophic than all the conflicts in the last two decades combined.

(This piece was originally published on china.org.cn. The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. The article reflects the author's opinion, not necessarily the view of CGTN.)

Source(s): China.org.cn