How in danger is Abe amid ongoing cronyism scandal?

World
Europe

The key figure in a document-tampering scandal related to a controversial discounted state land sale in Japan, which has ensnared Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has said that Abe's office was not involved in falsifying any papers.

Nobuhisa Sagawa, who resigned earlier this month as the head of the National Tax Agency, appeared in the Diet as a sworn witness on Tuesday. He claimed that only his office took part in altering documents related to the murky land sale, but declined to answer detailed questions about how and when the documents were altered.

Former Japanese tax agency chief Nobuhisa Sagawa, a key figure in a cronyism scandal that has sparked a political crisis for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, bows as he leaves after testifying at the upper house of parliament in Tokyo, Japan, March 27, 2018. /VCG Photo‍

Abe has repeatedly apologized and denied allegations that either he or his wife, Akie Abe, were involved in the sweetheart land deal or subsequent alteration of documents.

On Monday, he told a parliamentary committee he would take responsibility if he was found to have concealed his wife's links to the deal.

Fresh polls conducted by Asahi newspaper showed Abe's approval rating falling 11.7 points to 32.6 percent over the past month, with disapproval rising 13.2 percent to 54.9.

How did Abe end up on the defensive?

In February 2017, news emerged that Moritomo Gakuen, an educational foundation in Osaka, bought a year earlier a government land for a fraction of its value.

The school operator reportedly paid 1.34 million yen (1.65 million US dollars) for the 9,000-square-meter plot, one tenth of the price for a comparable spot nearby.

Abe's wife was under the spotlight as she was expected to serve as the honorary principal of the primary school that Moritomo Gakuen planned to open. Moreover, the operator of Moritomo Gakuen, Yasunori Kagoike told the parliament that he received a donation of one million yen (9,400 US dollars) in cash from Abe via his wife – allegations Abe and his government have vehemently denied.

Kagoike and his wife were arrested last July and the foundation has filed for bankruptcy.

Why has the scandal resurfaced?

The scandal gradually died down after Abe won a fresh term in office last year. However, earlier this month, the Asahi newspaper reported that documents related to the land sale had been doctored before being presented to lawmakers.

Local media reported that the name of Abe's wife was among those deleted from the documents.

Things worsened after a regional finance ministry official, who handled the land deal, was found dead in apparent suicide on March 9.

Sagawa resigned from his post as the head of the National Tax Agency on the same day.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gestures during a session of the upper house budgetary committee at parliament in Tokyo, Japan, March 26, 2018. /VCG Photo

How damaging is this for Abe?

Although public anger has cast a shadow over Abe's administration, experts believe Abe is likely to survive the ordeal.

"His support rate is likely to fall, but Abe is still likely to survive the scandal by saying 'This was done by finance ministry bureaucrats'," Shinichi Nishikawa, professor of politics at Meiji University in Tokyo said.

Abe won a general election last year, but he needs to be ratified as ruling party leader in this year's September election. If he wins, he will become Japan's longest-serving leader.

Protesters demonstrate in Tokyo against Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party after Abe renewed his intention to amend Japan's pacifist Constitution at the LDP convention in Tokyo, Japan, March 25, 2018. /VCG Photo

Tobias Harris, vice-president of the Teneo Intelligence think tank argued Abe could be damaged by the scandal at a time when he wanted to achieve his long-held ambition of changing the constitution.

Meanwhile, the scandal also resulted in a public call to ask Abe's close ally, Finance Minister Taro Aso, to resign. If Aso indeed steps down, it would be a huge blow to Abe.

"If Aso resigns, the Abe cabinet itself will be in danger, together with much of the momentum for its policy agenda," Jun Okumura, a visiting scholar at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs in Tokyo said.

"Aso is a political whale and his resignation would be much more damaging than that of the relatively junior cabinet ministers that we have seen."

2105km