China Currency Market: Yuan strengthens against currency basket, but weakens against US dollars
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02:29
China's Renminbi has slipped to a little above 6.4 so far this month from around 6.2 yuan per dollar. The weakening, however, is in contradiction with its strong performance against a basket of other currencies tracked by China's foreign exchange regulator, which has been rising for more than a year. Our reporter Chen Tong has been talking to the experts to find out what's going on.
The China Foreign Exchange Trade System's Yuan Index, which indicates the value of the Renminbi against the currency basket, has jumped by about 6 percent since May 2017. But while China's currency has been rising against the basket, it's been falling against the dollar for three months. How can it go in two directions at once?
JIMMY ZHU, CHIEF STRATEGIST FULLERTON MARKETS "In the past few weeks, we saw political uncertainties from Italy, Spain which drive Euro low and push the dollar higher. So that's one of the main reasons that push the Chinese yuan lower. But why the yuan is up against the basket of currencies. One reason is in the past few months and weeks, we saw an inflow to the China equity market, bond market that increased. The other reason is yuan is not a free tradable currency so when the dollar up to a certain level, the rest of Asian currencies most likely will depreciate more than the Chinese yuan."
Experts believe the Renminbi will continue to depreciate against the dollar in the next few months. The spread of the ten-year sovereign bond yields between China and the United States has been decreasing, and that means the Chinese yuan is under outflow pressure.
DENG ZHIJIAN, INVESTMENT STRATEGIST DBS CHINA "I think if the spread keeps going down, RMB will depreciate again. Of course, it's not the time RMB will depreciate back to 6.9 because our RMB a little bit strong at this moment because we have tightening monetary policy right. Our target is 6.6."
The US dollar index has risen by 5 percent in the last four months. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a decision on whether to increase US interest rates this Thursday. As the market is already pricing in a Fed rate rise of 25 basis points this week, however, experts believe the value of dollar should not shift greatly in the short term. CHEN TONG, ICS FOR CGTN, SHANGHAI.