US Sanctions on Iran: What's the impact on global oil markets?
Updated 13:20, 06-May-2019
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On Thursday, US crude dropped almost 3 percent because of oversupply fears as the increased sanctions had a more gradual impact than expected and US crude oil inventories rose sharply. CGTN's Jacob Greaves reports from Dubai, on how the US decision might affect global oil markets.
The screws on Iranian crude output appear to be tightening, But will that impact the flow of supply for global oil markets? The answer might lie in OPEC.
JACOB GREAVES DUBAI "When announcing the end of waivers, the White House said it was working with top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and here in the UAE to ensure the market is adequately supplied. That raises the question of what extra capacity OPEC producers have."
ROBIN MILLS, CEO QAMAR ENERGY  "It depends on how much Iran's exports are diminished, but lets say at the high end Iran's exports might be reduced by 700,000 to one million barrels per day, so then we've got the countries that would really step in would be Saudi Arabia, of course, which has something in the range of 2 million barrels per day spare capacity, the UAE perhaps 300,000. So in principle there's ample spare capacity to make up for any loss from Iran, however, Iran is not the only thing going on in the oil market, Venezuela collapse is continuing which threatens 600,000 a day, there's fighting in Libya that's a million barrels per day at risk, so if all these things were to come together then the market would be much tighter."
Last week oil prices dipped as US President Donald Trump again pressured OPEC to raise production. But some analysts say the eventual ending of US waivers on Iranian oil has already been factored into markets.
RICHARD LEE, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER EMIRATES NBD ASSET MANAGEMENT "If you look at the oil production coming out of Iran, it has fallen by 1 million barrels the same for its export numbers and because of that, the oil prices have been reaching to new highs recently touching $74 before the tweet came out from Trump, so the price has moved quite a lot, we believe its largely, largely priced in."
What Riyadh does next could be key, As it stands an OPEC-led supply cut agreed with Russia is still in effect. And on Tuesday, Saudi Arabia said the deal could be extended beyond June to incorporate the rest of 2019.
That's likely sent oil prices up, in all they've surged almost 40% since January. Despite US pressure, it's not yet clear whether OPEC is a willing partner of the White House. JG, CGTN, Dubai.