Brexit Year Ender: Clock ticks towards UK-EU divorce despite all uncertainties

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Europe

03:56

Just 3 months remain till the UK's departure from the European Union. A deal was done with the EU in November, but the British House of Commons looks increasingly unlikely to ratify it in January. Mariam Zaidi charts the bumpy road to Brexit in 2018 from Brussels.

As 2018 draws to a close, one thing both the UK and the EU can't quite seem to close the chapter on is Brexit despite an orderly withdrawal being within grasp.

ANDRE SAPIR FORMER ECONOMIC ADVISER TO THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION "I think the fear on the side of the European Union at the start of the negotiations was that the UK would be in a strong negotiating position because they would divide the different countries. It turns out that it's exactly the opposite that has occurred."

At the end of last year the sides had reached agreement on a 120 page draft withdrawal declaration. And by early March, a breakthrough was declared on the three core issues of separation – citizen rights, the divorce bill and the Irish border.

THERESA MAY UK PRIME MINISTER "Getting to this point has required give and take on both sides and I believe the joint report being published is in the best interests of the UK and I very much welcome the prospect of moving ahead to talk about trade and security and to discuss the positive future relationship which is in all our interests."

And move ahead they did. Days later at the March EU summit, leaders endorsed opening up trade talks and gave formal approval to the transition deal.

But beware the Irish backstop. With the UK insisting to leave both the EU Single Market and Customs Union, a failsafe to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland in the event of No Deal Brexit was written into the deal. It would keep Northern Ireland in regulatory alignment with the EU.

MICHEL BARNIER EU LEAD BREXIT NEGOTIATOR "This backstop will not call into question the constitutional order of the UK."

By July, Theresa May had finally set out her hopes and desires for a future relationship with the EU but in September during an informal summit in Salzburg, the EU had lost patience. May was humiliated.

DONALD TUSK EU COUNCIL PRESIDENT "Everybody shared the view that while there are positive elements in the Chequers proposal, the suggested framework for economic cooperation will not work, not least because it risks undermining the single market."

Next to October, the crunch Brexit summit that never was. A deal was meant to be done here. But a week ahead of it, negotiations hit a brick wall. Talks had stalled on the Irish border issue.

DALIA GRYBAUSKAITÉ LITHUANIAN PRESIDENT "I think that in UK we need a concrete understanding what really UK wants. To stay one leg on the continent and one leg in UK, not possible."

By November, the wheels may have well and truly come off in the UK, but here in Brussels a determined Theresa May pushed forward. On November 25th the day had come. EU leaders gathered to formally sign off on both the 585 page withdrawal agreement and the political declaration on the UK and EU's future relationship. But UK beware.

JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER PRESIDENT, EU COMMISSION "This is the best deal possible for Britain, the best deal possible for Europe, this is the only deal possible, the only deal possible."

XAVIER BETTEL LUXEMBOURGIAN PRIME MINISTER "I am not a MP in Westminster. They just have to know what will be the consequences. If they think by voting 'no' they will renegotiate, I think they are wrong, in March it is finished."

MARIAM ZAIDI BRUSSELS "So can a deal be done? Or will the UK government finally bow to demands for a people's vote? The only constant amongst all the uncertainty, is that the clock is counting down to Brexit."

And without a clear path ahead, the smartest thing both sides can do is prep for a No Deal Brexit, but hope for the best.

Mariam Zaidi, CGTN, BRUSSELS.