Who will succeed Zuma in South Africa leadership fight?

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‍South Africa’s ruling ANC party will elect a new head – who will likely replace Jacob Zuma as the country’s president in 2019 – at its national conference starting on Saturday.

After two terms as president of the African National Congress, the 75-year-old Zuma is due to step down from party duties, although he will stay on as South Africa’s president for another year and a half until general elections.

The ANC holds a national conference every five years. So what is at stake at this 54th edition? Who are the candidates? And what are the main issues plaguing South Africa?

WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?

A total seven candidates, including three women, are in the running to become the ANC’s next president. But the race will likely come down to two people: Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Cyril Ramaphosa – The Vice-President

South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa greets security personnel at the World Economic Forum on Africa 2017 meeting in Durban, South Africa, May 5, 2017. /VCG Photo

Ramaphosa, 65, is the ANC’s and South Africa’s current deputy president, but is looking to move to the top post after the national conference.

Once Nelson Mandela’s pick as future president, the former trade union leader played a leading role in the negotiations to end apartheid in the 1990s.

Now one of South Africa’s wealthiest people, he has pledged to fight the corruption that has tainted Zuma’s tenure and to revive the economy. Among his supporters are labor unions and ANC voters disillusioned by Zuma’s leadership.

A survey by polling company Ratepop earlier this week found that an “overwhelming” majority of ANC voters – close to 59 percent – backed Ramaphosa, compared to just 16 percent for Dlamini-Zuma.

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – The Ex-Wife

Former African Union chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma at the African National Congress Youth League in Durban, South Africa, April 20, 2017. /VCG Photo

Dlamini-Zuma, 68, was Zuma’s third wife from 1982 to 1998, but was also an anti-apartheid activist in her own right.

She has served in every cabinet since apartheid – as health minister under Mandela, foreign minister under Thabo Mbeki, and home affairs minister under her ex-husband – and headed the African Union from 2012 to 2017.

On the campaign trail, Dlamini-Zuma has backed the president’s policy of "radical economic transformation," aimed at helping poor black South Africans. She is supported by the ANC’s key women's and youth leagues, as well as Zuma, with whom she has four children.

But this has prompted concerns that her presidency would just be a continuation of her ex-husband’s rule.

If elected she would become the first woman to head the ANC – and possibly soon South Africa.

The other candidates:

Zweli Mkhize – 61, the party's treasurer general. He is seen as a possible compromise candidate to ensure party unity.

Speaker of Parliament Baleka Mbete (L) and ANC treasurer general Zweli Mkhize at the African National Congress 5th National Policy Conference in Soweto, South Africa, July 5, 2017. /VCG Photo

Lindiwe Sisulu – 63, member of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) – the party’s top leadership.

Baleka Mbete – 68, national chair of the ANC, speaker of South Africa’s National Assembly, former deputy president of South Africa.

Jeff Radebe – 64, NEC member.

Mathews Phosa – 65, ex-ANC treasurer general.

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

For Zuma – The South African president’s political and personal fate rely heavily on the outcome of the conference.

South African President Jacob Zuma gestured during the closing session of the South African ruling party African National Congress policy conference in Johannesburg on July 5, 2017. /VCG Photo

If Dlamini-Zuma wins, there is a good chance her ex-husband will serve out the rest of his term as the country’s president. Critics say he has backed her candidacy in a bid to avoid prosecution.

If on the other hand Ramaphosa takes over as ANC head, he might push Zuma out before 2019, observers say. This could force Zuma to face the various criminal charges against him, including for corruption.

For the ANC – Zuma’s eight years in power have been characterized by wide-scale corruption, poor administration and a raft of scandals.

Now, amid calls for a change in direction from voters and party members alike, the very future of the party could depend on this election.

A member of the Umkhonto We Sizwe Military Veterans Association (MKMVA) stands guard at the ANC headquarters in downtown Johannesburg, South Africa, September 5, 2016. /VCG Photo

A win by Dlamini-Zuma, seen as the candidate of continuity, could lead to a split in the party, analysts say, as Ramaphosa’s supporters would be loath to unite behind his rival.

The ANC would also likely lose its parliamentary majority in the next general elections if she takes over the helm, the Ratepop survey warned.

If Ramaphosa becomes the new party leader, however, 81 percent of ANC voters said they would cast their ballot for the party in 2019.

For South Africa – Investors are hoping for a Ramaphosa win to restore order and stability in the country.

Dlamini-Zuma, if she wins, is unlikely to go against many of the people, including her ex-husband, who will have supported her, commentators say.

African National Congress supporters chant slogans during ANC President Jacob Zuma's election campaign in Atteridgeville, a township located to the west of Pretoria, South Africa, July 5, 2016. /VCG Photo

Whoever succeeds Zuma at the helm of the ANC, and possibly soon as South African president, will have their work cut out for them. South Africa is battling massive unemployment, housing shortages and continuing racial inequality even 23 years after the end of apartheid.

CRISIS IN THE PARTY

The national conference comes at a time when the ANC is going through a bit of a crisis, with critics and even former party grandees saying it has lost its way and in no way resembles the party that fought apartheid and white-rule over 20 years ago.

Amid factional battles and corruption allegations in the party, the election of the new ANC head will be “one of the most hotly contested and divisive” races in the party’s 105-year history, Bloomberg news agency argued.

Experts have warned that proceedings could get heated, and voiced concerns about potential vote buying.

A pedestrian passes by an under-construction residential project in the Maboneng precinct in Johannesburg, South Africa, Dec. 6, 2017. /VCG Photo

THE PROCEDURE

Some 5,240 delegates will cast a vote to determine the next ANC chief. They will not only elect a party president, but also a deputy president, national chair, secretary general, deputy secretary general and treasurer general.

Some observers have warned however that the conference could be cancelled and the vote delayed, thereby leaving Zuma unquestionably in charge for another year. This scenario would however likely accelerate a split in the party.

The ANC national conference begins Saturday until Wednesday. The party’s new head could however be announced already on Sunday.

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