Global risks: what threats does the world face in 2018?

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The world in 2018 faces an array of challenges and potential risks. Could it be the year cyberattacks cripple critical infrastructure, instability on the Korean Peninsula hits crisis point, climate change devastates communities, terror attacks take new forms, or even when an unforeseen threat sparks a fresh financial meltdown?

State-sponsored cyberattacks and ransomware-facilitated extortion will continue and likely even increase in 2018, according to experts, putting governments, corporations and private users at risk.

Alleged meddling in the 2016 US presidential election exposed the extent to which hacking and cyberattacks can influence national security and politics. Whether there will be a repeat during US midterm elections, or the string of other polls around the world in 2018, remains to be seen.

Critical infrastructure could also be at risk as state and non-state actors race to build up cyber-warfare capabilities. To counter such threats, countries will need to set up cybersecurity alliances to help each other. Companies and private users can increasingly expect to become the target of hackers, as well as ransomware like Wannacry.

Despite wide-scale attacks, many corporations have shown shockingly lax cyber security, leading to major data breaches affecting millions of people. 2018 may be the year when individuals and companies finally ditch single-password security to pile on encryption and multi-layered authentication, experts say.

Terror threats from Islamic extremists, ethno-nationalists and leftist guerrillas look set to continue, despite the rapid collapse of ISIL in both Iraq and Syria in 2017 and a significant year-on-year decline in the overall number of terrorist incidents worldwide.

According to global risk consultancy firm Control Risks, the decrease in 2017 terror attacks “was broad but uneven, and multiple countries experienced increased terrorist activity because of shifting conflict and militant group dynamics.”

2017 witnessed an ISIL-inspired insurgency in southern Philippines intensifying into a regional jihadist front, while military actions in Myanmar turned the Rohingyas’ plight into a jihadist cause célèbre.

In addition, Islamic extremists from ISIL and Al Qaeda continued to wage attacks across the Sahel and Horn of Africa regions. Despite its territorial decline, ISIL successfully incited and inspired high-intensity attacks in Western countries, including the US, the UK, Finland, Spain, Sweden and Australia.

Meanwhile, ethno-nationalist and guerrilla groups were major terrorism threats in Colombia, Turkey, India and Thailand; while Western Europe and North America suffered right- and left-wing extremist attacks.

In 2018, Islamic extremists, ethno-nationalist insurgents and leftist guerrillas will remain the main sources of terrorist violence in most countries, Control Risks predicts. But the fringes of a wider range of ideological movements appear to be embracing extremist violence. These include lone individuals accessing extremist ideology online but acting outside organized groups.

Recessions historically occur in cycles of 10-12 years, so could an unforeseen catastrophe, such as a crash in overblown financial markets, spark another downturn in 2018?

A decade on from the global financial crisis, the world economy has spluttered back to growth of 3.6 percent (IMF, projected) and a vestige of normality. Unemployment rates are low in developed countries, emerging economies are growing and financial markets are flying.

However, debt levels in major economies are higher than in the pre-crisis period and markets are soaring partially on the back of the monetary stimulus that followed the crisis. And in many countries the recovery has only heightened income inequality, aiding the rise of populist, isolationist forces in a globalization backlash.

As economic and financial policy changes, unexpected consequences can arise. Headline concerns rotate around: a collapse in asset prices; US-triggered trade wars; radical changes in monetary policy from new central bankers; fresh problems in the eurozone; oil price fluctuations; and fallout from Britain’s impending exit from the EU.

New nuclear and missile tests, increasingly belligerent rhetoric and possible misunderstandings: there is a real possibility that war could break out on the Korean Peninsula in 2018, experts warn.

2017 saw the DPRK carry out its sixth and most powerful nuclear test yet and launch an unprecedented number of missiles, including some capable of reaching the continental US. It also declared new UN sanctions an “act of war” and promised a “heavy price” on all who supported the move.

US President Donald Trump meanwhile ratcheted up the rhetoric, trading personal insults with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un.

The war of words did not escalate into full-blown military conflict but mixed messages from the US – from a bellicose and unpredictable Trump to more measured top officials – have raised the prospect of a misunderstanding leading to war in the future. Continued joint military drills by the US and South Korea have also angered Pyongyang.

As China and Russia try to calm tempers, the UN has renewed calls for the resumption of six-party talks, stalled since 2009, to de-escalate tensions.

With ice coverage melting and sea levels rising at the fastest rate in over 2,000 years, floods and droughts driven by climate change are already devastating lives and fueling displacement.

Global “common cause” efforts to counter climate change are set to advance in 2018, despite the bump in the road caused by the US retreat from the Paris accord.

As the US – which is the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter – had largely stayed away from any climate commitments before the Paris Agreement, Barack Obama’s decision to bring it within the ambit of the deal was hailed by environmentalists. However, President Donald Trump’s policy shift has wide-ranging repercussions for the climate around the world.

As per the Paris Agreement all countries will be required to work on climate change once the deal comes into force in 2020 with an aim to even out global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and even less if possible.

To push governments to lift their ambitions, the Paris accord includes a series of reviews of emission targets that countries will need to meet. The first collective assessment of how the world is faring on emissions and other clauses of the agreement will be carried out in 2018.

Irrespective of Trump’s decision, the global trend toward renewable energies is poised to continue in 2018, including in the US, according to experts. And with China and India's efforts to move from coal to renewable energy gaining pace, hope remains for a reduction in carbon emissions and global environment preservation.

The risk of flooding, drought, and natural disasters continues, however, and displacement in the Middle East and Africa – particularly the Sahel – could have significant knock-on effects.

(Zhao Hong and Li Jingjie also contributed to this article.)

Look out for CGTN’s regional breakdown of hot geopolitical issues and a preview of possible influencers in 2018.