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There are few winners in a trade war - and nearly all countries stand to lose. But in the short term, some nations are seeing opportunity amid the conflict between China and the United States. Brazil is one of them. Paulo Cabral has more on the business outlook from Sao Paulo.
There's growing Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans and the price of the crop has risen steeply since May. It's a clear result here -- of the trade conflict between China and the United States. As China pulls business from the U.S., it picks up in trade with others, in this case, the world's largest exporter of soybeans, Brazil. And there's hope among other Brazilian food producers -- that China will turn to them, too, to supplement their needs. The seafood industry is key among them.
EDUARDO NASLAVSKY PRESIDENT, BRAZILIAN ASSOCIATION OF FISHING INDUSTRIES "Of course a big trade dispute like this, between China and the United States, can create opportunities for Brazil. At first we see an increase in the potential of exporting lobster to the Chinese market. Brazil and United State were disputing this market in China. Since now the American products will be more expensive because of the taxes, we'll have an advantage."
According to a recent study by Brazil's National Industry Confederation, the country could see an additional 7.4 billion dollars a year through increased exports to both countries as a result of tariffs imposed so far. And more are threatened.
Increased sales to China likely include soybeans, pork, and seafood. And Brazilian manufacturers say they see a potential U.S. market for some of the cars, auto parts and machinery previously sourced in China.
PATRICIA GOMES, EXTERNAL MARKETS DIRECTOR BRAZILIAN MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT ASSOCIATION "We estimate a potential, that the trade conflict will open up a potential market for our sector of 13 billion dollars. Companies that are already exporting to the US may be able to use this moment to boost their sales. But for those who are not yet in the exports market, it's much harder because it is not easy to develop new clients abroad for our products."
PAULO CABRAL SAO PAULO "While there are clear opportunities for Brazil to profit in the short term as a result of the trade conflict between China and the United States there is also concern here - about its wider impact on the global economy. And that could ultimately work against Brazil - and most other nations, too.
JULIANA INHASZ ECONOMY PROFESSOR, INSPER "We have to acknowledge that there is a very negative aspect of this trade war. It will compromise world economic growth. Some countries may feel a benefit now but if we look at the overall situation we notice that at some point there will be a general reduction in the world output. And this can lead to price increases and even inflation."
China and the United States are by far the two largest economies in the world. Any decisions they make are bound to deeply impact the global economy. For now Brazil may benefit from their conflict, but the long-term consequences are much more uncertain. Paulo Cabral, CGTN, Sao Paulo.