What is the domino effect of Abe’s early election?

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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe officially called for an early election on September 25 and dissolved parliament’s lower house on Thursday.

Analysts say that Abe has called the election a year early to take advantage of rebounding approval ratings, which were around 50 percent in September after falling below 30 percent in July. But why was Abe determined to dissolve parliament?

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attends a press conference in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 25, 2017. /Xinhua Photo

Jiang Yuechun, a senior research fellow and Director of the Department for World Economy and Development Studies, China Institute of International Studies, told CGTN that while there are many reasons to explain why Abe planned to disband the lower house, one in particular stands out.

“It wouldn’t give the main opposition, the Democratic Party (DP), a chance to question Abe during the parliament, in order to avoid his approval rating plunging and pave the way for a snap election,” Jiang explained.

Abe wants his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) alone to gain a two-thirds majority to pave the way for the Pacifist Constitution revisions.

Abe's race, however, will face challenges, Jiang said. Former LDP cabinet member and current Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike recently launched a new national party called "Kibo no To" (Party of Hope). Some defectors have left the LDP to join the new group, including lawmaker Mineyuki Fukuda.

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike holds a placard reading her new party name "Party of Hope" during a news conference at Tokyo Metropolitan Government Building in Tokyo, Japan, September 25, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Jiang added that this move might cause a domino effect within the party and facilitate the regrouping of opposition parties.

In theory, the snap election is conducive to maintaining Abe’s current support level and favorable for the future of the LDP in Japan.

But it is also important to notice the trend of disunity within the LDP and the rise of opposition parties, which will cast a cloud over the Abe’s election campaign.

If Abe's party fails to win a majority, or 233 seats, he may resign.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe speaks in a special session of the House of Representatives Budget Committee in Tokyo, Japan, on July 24, 2017. /Xinhua Photo‍

September 29 marks the 45th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between China and Japan.

According to Jiang, diplomatic relations between Japan and China reached a period of restoration after the “Ice Age” in 2012. And yet, it will not produce a fundamental shift in Japan’s policy toward China, no matter who’s in charge.

Over the long run, the two countries are seeking development through cooperative competition as well as confrontation.