Zimbabwe crisis: What's next for country at a crossroads?

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A day after Zimbabwe’s military took control of key assets in the capital Harare and detained President Robert Mugabe, it remains unclear how the dust will settle.

Discussions are understood to be underway between the Zimbabwean Defence Force and the veteran leader over next steps, with speculation that an interim government led by former vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa could be established.

Robert Mugabe is understood to have been detained by the military. /Reuters Photo

What happened?

Zimbabwe’s military began an operation to take control of key assets in Harare early on Wednesday morning. Explosions were reported in the city and gunfire was heard in the neighborhood close to Mugabe's compound.

Soldiers took over the state broadcaster, ZBC, while armored vehicles blocked roads to the main government offices, parliament and the courts in central Harare.

Zimbabwe Defence Forces Major-General Sibusiso Moyo makes an announcement on state broadcaster ZBC on November 15, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Major General Sibusiso Moyo gave a live address on the state television channel to announce that Mugabe was "safe and sound" and only "criminals" surrounding him were being targeted. He insisted that the action did not amount to a coup or "military takeover."

Why did the military intervene?

A fierce struggle over 93-year-old Mugabe’s succession as leader of Zimbabwe’s ruling Zanu-PF party has been underway for some time, but was brought into the open on November 6 when Mugabe sacked Mnangagwa.

Mnangagwa fled Harare after his sacking, but vowed to return to lead the country. The 75-year-old, who is reported to have now flown back to Zimbabwe, heads a faction supported by liberation war veterans and much of the military.

Grace Mugabe and Emmerson Mnangagwa in Harare, Zimbabwe on February 10, 2016. /Reuters Photo

Chris Mutsvangwa, the leader of the liberation war veterans, told Reuters on Wednesday: "It’s the end of a very painful and sad chapter in the history of a young nation, in which a dictator, as he became old, surrendered his court to a gang of thieves around his wife."

Members of the rival faction, known as "G40" and headed by Mugabe’s 52-year-old wife Grace, appeared to be targeted in the operation. Reuters reported that Finance Minister Ignatius Chombo, a leading member of "G40", had been detained by the military.

The head of the ruling party's youth wing, Kudzanai Chipanga, appeared on state TV on Wednesday evening to apologize for comments he had made criticizing the army.

International calls for calm

South African President Jacob Zuma urged the parties "to resolve the political impasse amicably," while the African Union said the situation should be addressed "in accordance with the Constitution of Zimbabwe and the relevant instruments of the African Union."

The Movement for Democratic Change, an opposition party within Zimbabwe, said it hoped the military intervention would lead to the "establishment of a stable, democratic and progressive nation state."

Military vehicles and soldiers check vehicles on the streets in Harare, Zimbabwe on November 15, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang described China as "a friendly country to Zimbabwe" and added that "peace, stability and development serve the fundamental interests of the country itself and other regional countries."

The United Nations and Western countries have also appealed for calm.

What next for the Mugabes?

Expectations are growing that Mugabe is close to accepting a deal to hand over power – he is the only leader Zimbabwe has known since independence from Britain in 1980.

Zuma spoke to the 93-year-old by phone on Wednesday. According to a statement on the South African president’s website, Mugabe "indicated that he was confined to his home but said that he was fine."

President Robert Mugabe listens to his wife Grace Mugabe in Harare, Zimbabwe on November 8, 2017. /Reuters Photo

South Africa's defense and state security ministers are in Harare trying to arrange talks between Mugabe and the Zimbabwean Defence Force, according to the statement.

The future of Grace Mugabe should her husband step down is thought to be key to discussions, with speculation that she could be allowed to live in exile as part of a power transition deal.

What next for Zimbabwe?

Zimbabwe has suffered economic difficulties since the 2000s, when a series of land reforms and droughts precipitated a crisis that ultimately saw inflation hit 500 billion percent. This year the country has been hit by cash shortages and fresh concerns over rapid inflation.

A transitional government is expected to be formed if Mugabe steps down, with opposition parties set to take part and Mnangagwa the likely interim leader.

Mnangagwa, if he replaces Mugabe, is thought to be keen to attract fresh foreign investment to help reinvigorate the country’s economy. However, the manner of transition will be vital.

Zuma issued a statement through the Southern African Development Community (SADC) expressing hope that developments in Zimbabwe "would not lead to unconstitutional changes of Government, as that would be contrary to both SADC and African Union principles."

People queue to draw money outside a bank in Harare, Zimbabwe on November 15,2017. /Reuters Photo

A peaceful transition of power – and Mugabe’s acquiescence, possibly through a televised statement – will be essential to Zimbabwe’s immediate future.

The country is in desperate need of economic redevelopment and foreign investment, but violent unrest would risk ejection or suspension from the African Union and put off investors.

The importance of stability to attracting investment was noted by Mnangagwa in an interview quoted in The Times newspaper on Thursday: "Capital goes where it feels comfortable and warm. If it’s cold it runs to a country which gives it better weather."

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