Bonn climate talks to flesh out Paris 'common cause'

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The world's nations meet in Bonn, Germany November 6-17 to flesh out the landmark Paris climate deal struck in 2015 as a global response to combat climate change and help countries adapt to its effects.

The conference has taken on a new level of intrigue with the withdrawal of the US from the Paris deal and the emergence of China as a leader in global "common cause" efforts to slow global warming.

COP23, the 23rd annual "conference of the parties" under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, will be presided over by Frank Bainimarama, prime minister of Fiji, an island nation at the front line of the threats climate change is creating.

"The human suffering caused by intensifying hurricanes, wildfires, droughts, floods and threats to food security caused by climate change means there is no time to waste," Bainimarama warned on Sunday.

What's on the agenda?

The signatories to the Paris climate agreement will discuss the next steps for the deal, fleshing out the principles agreed in 2015 with much-needed detail.

The Paris agreement put in place a framework for a unified global response to climate change, with a headline goal of keeping the global temperature rise this century "well below" 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – and a more ambitious target of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The question now is: how?

Signatories are expected to begin cutting emissions in 2020 under the framework of the deal, but the headline goals will only be met if governments and the private sector dramatically increase their ambition, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warned on October 31.

Negotiations in Bonn will focus on a "rule book", due to be completed in 2018, outlining implementation of the Paris deal – specifically on standards to measure and report greenhouse gas emissions, and tightened targets.

Increased ambition needed

UNEP’s recent Emission's Gap Report said that even full implementation of current pledges makes a global temperature increase of at least 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 "very likely."

"One year after the Paris Agreement entered into force, we still find ourselves in a situation where we are not doing nearly enough to save hundreds of millions of people from a miserable future," said UNEP head Erik Solheim.

"This is unacceptable. If we invest in the right technologies, ensuring that the private sector is involved, we can still meet the promise we made to our children to protect their future. But we have to get on the case now."

Governments need to deliver much stronger pledges when they are revised in 2020, the UNEP added, noting that "the picture could become even bleaker" if the US goes ahead with its stated aim of withdrawal from the deal.

Blocks of ice are seen on the shore of Argentina's Carlini Base in front of the Fourcade glacier in Antarctica. Some computer forecasts suggest that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high level, parts of Antarctica could break up rapidly, causing the ocean to rise six feet or more by the end of this century. /Reuters Photo

Building bridges in Bonn

The Paris agreement included a mechanism whereby wealthy countries would contribute at least 100 billion US dollars by 2020 to help developing countries cut back on emissions and manage the effects of climate change.

However, with the expected departure of the US from the agreement it is not clear how that funding goal will be met.

China's Special Representative on Climate Change Xie Zhenhua said developed countries need to work out a timetable to fulfil the funding pledge.

"It will enable countries to build political trust and enhance confidence of the international community in fulfilling obligations and honoring commitments," he added.

Storm clouds can be seen behind chimneys at the Bayswater coal-powered thermal power station located near the central New South Wales town of Muswellbrook, Australia, on March 14. /Reuters Photo

And the Paris deal didn't address the issue of compensation for developing countries already bearing the brunt of climate change – but who did little to cause it. Ill-feeling over this could be a factor during negotiations in Bonn.

Xie said that China will be putting forward a "bridge- building plan" at the Bonn conference to deal with differences in the negotiation process. He added that he remains hopeful that the US could reverse its decision to exit the Paris deal.

What role for the US?

The presence of US representatives in Bonn has sparked controversy, given President Donald Trump’s announcement in June that he would withdraw from the Paris agreement, calling it "a deal that punishes the United States."

Trump's decision punctured some of the optimism surrounding the Paris deal and the "common cause" nature of the agreement. However, no country can officially leave the agreement before November 2020 – so the US still has a place at the table as talks over rules for the agreement get underway.

A protester dressed as a polar bear attends a demonstration under the banner "Protect the climate - stop coal" on Nov. 4, two days before the start of the COP23 UN Climate Change Conference hosted by Fiji but held in Bonn, Germany. /Reuters Photo

The US has pledged to play an active role in negotiations, working towards rules that will be in US interests whether it is in or out of the deal. Many US cities and businesses have pledged to stick to the goals of the Paris agreement, and will be represented in Germany.

The presence of the administration representatives is likely to cause controversy, however. The White House confirmed last Thursday that the Trump administration will promote coal, natural gas and nuclear energy at a presentation to the conference.

Given the expectation that a move away from fossil fuels towards renewables will be needed to achieve the goals of the Paris deal, the approach is unlikely to receive a warm welcome.

Who will be there?

The Bonn conference is expected to attract up to 25,000 people, including diplomats, scientists, businesspeople, lobbyists and environmentalists. A fleet of bicycles and electric buses will be laid on to transport delegates, in an effort to reduce the carbon footprint of the event.

National leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are expected to arrive towards the end of the conference to add impetus to negotiations.

People march during a demonstration under the banner "Protect the climate - stop coal" on Nov. 4, two days before the start of the COP23 UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn. /Reuters Photo

The Bonn climate conference is likely to feature painstaking, technical negotiations. But the underlying question will be: Can the world stick together in the "common cause" of combating climate change, without the US?

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