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Egypt's current account deficit for the 2017-2018 financial year that ended in June narrowed by nearly 59-percent to 6 billion US dollars. The central bank attributed the drop to the impact of currency liberalisation. Egypt floated its pound in late 2016 as part of an IMF-backed economic reform program. Since then the currency has more than halved in value, helping to cut the trade deficit. Yasser Hakim has more on how Egypt may be reducing both its deficit and expectations for the future.
For the first time, Egypt has succeeded in posting more revenue than expenditure. Revenue increased by 20% while expenditure dropped by 18%.
AHMED FARAHAT AL BOURSE NEWS "A large portion of revenue came from an improved tax collection system and new taxes introduced. This raised tax income by 22%. The government also issued Euro bonds, €2 billion, for the first time because the interest rates and repayment plan are much better than the local debt. There were additional cuts in energy subsidies which reduced expenditure."
An improvement in tourism inflow, a major source of hard currency, has given a boost to the state revenue. And in spite of its inflationary effects, the devaluation of the Egyptian pound helped increase exports and attract more foreign direct investments.
YASSER HAKIM CAIRO, EGYPT "In spite of the positive numbers and optimistic outlook, there are certain challenges that might derail the growth rate and next year's budget forecast."
A sharp rise in international oil prices and the exit of investors from emerging markets in the last two months are a cause for concern.
AHMED FARAHAT AL BOURSE NEWS "The international oil price has reached 85 dollars and if it remains around the same level then the government will face a budget crisis. It will have to take a tough decision of increasing fuel prices in the country in the first quarter of 2019 and another time in June or July to cover the unexpected expenses and costs. This fiscal year's energy subsidies have already reached 6.7 billion dollars, 12% more than planned."
The government says it will take all measures possible to maintain a growth rate of 5% in the 2020 fiscal year. Yasser Hakim, CGTN, Cairo.