Kenya election: Calm before the storm?

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‍As the loudspeakers from the election campaign cars fell silent in cities of Kenya ahead of Tuesday's vote, many in the East African nation are eagerly anticipating the final result of the country's general election.

Will Kenyans embrace a peaceful power transition this year? The answer seems largely dependent on the effectiveness of its electronic voting system and how well those who lose would take their defeat.

Fears of violence

Nervous Kenyans stockpiled food and water on Monday and police prepared first emergency aid kits as families headed to their ethnic heartlands on the eve of an election many feared could descend into violence.

Ahead of the polls, election observers said the mass exodus of people from Nairobi and former hotspots like Naivasha, 100 km outside Nairobi, is a sign voters have been disenfranchised due to security fears.

Men look at the voters lists for the 2017 Kenyan General Elections at a polling station in Nairobi, on August 7, 2017. /AFP Photo

In 2007, a hotly contested election between President Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga led to post-election unrest. Then the politically-motivated ethnic violence killed at least 1,100 people and displaced 600,000.

This year, security chiefs say there will be 180,000 officers on the streets – everyone from the police to the forest service – to ensure the vote is at least as peaceful as it was during Kenya's last election in 2013.

However, two incidents in the last week have put the nation of nearly 50 million on edge.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) head of technology, Chris Msando who was in charge of the electronic system, was found tortured and murdered a week ago, and on Friday two foreign political advisers to opposition figure Odinga were arrested and deported by plain-clothes police. Their laptops were also seized.

Fierce competition

Kenya's 19.6 million voters go to the polls on Tuesday to elect a president, 47 governors, 47 senators, 290 members of parliament, and 47 women representatives.

Kenya's ruling President and candidate to his own succession, Uhuru Kenyatta, addresses worshipers during a religious service at the Deliverance Church on August 6, 2017. /AFP Photo

Opinion polls before Tuesday's presidential election put the pair neck-and-neck.

Opposition leader Odinga, 72, has already said President Uhuru Kenyatta, 55, can only win if his ruling Jubilee party rigs the vote, a stance that increases the chances of a disputed result and unrest.

The two main candidates in this election are well known to Kenyans. Kenyatta has been president since 2013 and is standing for a second term, while Odinga is a longtime opposition leader who disputed his defeat in both 2007 and 2013.

Kenyan opposition National Super Alliance (NASA) presidential candidate Raila Odinga (2nd R), flanked by (from L) Moses Wetangula, his running mate Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi, waves at Uhuru Park gardens in Nairobi on August 5, 2017 during a final campaign rally before national elections. /AFP Photo

In the run up to this week's vote, both candidates have refrained from making inflammatory speeches, observers say, perhaps a consequence of the International Criminal Court's now-abandoned indictment of Kenyatta and his running-mate William Ruto for their alleged roles in the 2007 bloodshed.

Yet people are nervous: Hate speech flyers and text messages have been circulating, both candidates have accused the other of underhanded campaign tactics and seem convinced that anything other than victory will be evidence of rigging.

Concerns over voting system

Kenya's electoral body has assured voters of free and fair elections Tuesday, after complaints over plans to allow poll officials in several voting centers permission to select areas from where they could access secure Internet to relay the results.

Electoral Commission officials wait for electoral material stored at a school in Nairobi ahead of the 2017 Kenyan General Elections, on August 7, 2017. /AFP Photo

However, election observers said the biggest risk of failure for the Kenya's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is if its Kenya Integrated Electoral Management System (KIEMS) fails.

This is because if the system fails as happened in the 2013 general elections, the electoral body will be forced to count votes manually, and in a country where vote-rigging has been alleged in the past, the loser will no doubt challenge the result.

IEBC Information Technology Coordinator Paul Mugo said it would be nearly impossible for an outsider to penetrate the digital electronic system of transmission of the results.

Meanwhile, Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) from East African bloc has deployed a team of 18 members, drawn from its member states to monitor pre-election as well as polling day activities.

Though uncertainties lie ahead, plenty of Kenyans are still hoping that the election will pass off peacefully and the country will move on.

(Source: Agencies)

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