While trade tensions between the U.S. and China are putting pressure on global growth, regional integration is advancing, with over 60 percent of trade happening within Asia. What is the global economic outlook from the perspective of Asia? CGTN Cui Huiao reports from the Summer Davos in Dalian.
Panelists start by expressing their outlook for the ongoing trade war between China and the U.S., which some economists say is the biggest downside risk on the world economy.
JIN KEYU, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE "It's hard to be anything but a little bit pessimistic, a truce doesn't mean progress and we can stay there for a long period of time. Is this about making a deal, business or is it about longer term issues?"
PAUL YANG, CHINA CEO KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS "We see the latest dislocation as a risk but at the same time an opportunity. We see companies are better positioned to handle this change to take this opportunity and take the market share."
Trade wars will not stop global trade, said Lu Minfang, CEO of Mengniu Dairy. His company which manufactures and distributes dairy products in China will still import animal feed but from Europe instead of the United States.
Optimistic about the trade war or not, the continued economic headwinds are being generated by other factors as well, such as high debt burdens, disfunctioning international systems, and political missteps including the botched British exit from the EU.
As a result of all this, earlier in January, the International Monetary Fund lowered its global economic forecast this year to 3.3 percent, down from the 3.5 percent it had previously predicted.
Given these challenges, panelists point to some new sources of growth for Asia's and the world's economies.
ZHU WEI, SENIOR MANAGING DIRECTOR ACCENTURE "The next wave clearly is coming to the B2B, the effort into the supply chain, effort into the quality of digitalization of manufacturing which will bring more power to the engine."
PAUL YANG, CHINA CEO KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS "Asia will have more millennials than America and Europe combined. Consumption is going to be a driver going forward in terms of growth."
JIN KEYU, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE "Trade tension is potentially a shock accelerating things going forward. We see many times before where technology adoption, offshoring, restructuring of firms usually happen where there is a shock. Normally people just do what they are doing and won't change."
CUI HUI'AO DALIAN, CHINA "The IMF predicts the global economy will bounce back at the end of 2019 or in the early of 2020. But that will require coordinated policy-making which again points to this year's theme of 'leadership 4.0' suggesting responsible and agile leadership is needed to keep us out of the economic doldrums. Cui Huiao, CGTN, Dalian, Liaoning Province."