Young leaders: do they live up to the hype?

World
Europe

When Austria’s fresh-faced Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz first met with foreign heads of state four years ago, he might have been mistaken for the intern. Now 31, Kurz is heading up coalition talks for a new government and will likely become the country’s new chancellor.

In New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, 37, has just been sworn in as prime minister. This follows the election earlier this year of Emmanuel Macron, 39, as French president. Ireland and Estonia both have leaders under 40 and Canada’s Justin Trudeau was 43 when he became prime minister.

So are we seeing a new trend of youthful leaders? What’s behind it, and do these young hopes live up to the hype?

New Zealand Labour leader Jacinda Ardern speaks to the press after leader of New Zealand First party Winston Peters announced his support for her party in Wellington, New Zealand, October 19, 2017. /Reuters Photo

For experts, it’s the mix of a hopeful message, the use of social media and an emotional connection with young voters that has prompted the rise of these youthful politicians.

“There is definitely a trend where voters are increasingly supporting candidates with whom they can connect emotionally,” Vincent Raynauld, assistant professor of Communications at Emerson College in Boston and a research associate at Canada’s Laval University, told CGTN.

“Social media channels are very important in that process as their structural and functional properties enable politicians to present themselves and their message in a very personalized way, thus making it more appealing and accessible to many members of the public.”

Screenshot of Justin Trudeau's Twitter account. /CGTN

Macron, Trudeau, Ardern, Kurz and Ireland new’s Taoiseach Leo Varadkar are all avid social media users, regularly posting updates about their work, policy goals and selfies, and interacting with voters via online chat sessions.

At times, this wave of new leaders has almost looked like the “cool kids” club, as they tweet their congratulations to each other and share pictures of their meetings.

“Look forward to working together with @sebastiankurz and hopefully no longer being the youngest Prime Minister in European Union #kurz2017,” Varadkar joked on Twitter after the Austrian election.

Screenshot of Leo Varadkar's Twitter account. /CGTN

A growing number of young voters are “looking for new ideas and solutions from people who have had similar experiences to them,” noted Morley Winograd, from the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

Voters are craving a departure from established parties and figures that have dominated politics for decades and are seen as partly to blame for current problems – something that also helps to explain the rise of populist movements worldwide in recent years.

Macron came to power with a newly-formed party, the dynamic sounding “En Marche!” (“Forward”), while Kurz gave the conservative People’s Party (OeVP) a new color – vibrant turquoise, instead of funeral black – and renamed it the New OeVP.

“Whether it is Trudeau in Canada or Macron in France, they approach politics in ways that are perceived by the public as straying away from established and more professionalized norms,” noted Raynauld.

French President Emmanuel Macron poses for pictures with kids during a visit to Maripasoula, French Guiana, October 26, 2017. /Reuters Photo

But whether the aura of hope lasts is far from guaranteed.

Grant Duncan, a political expert from New Zealand’s Massey University, noted that Ardern’s new coalition partner Winston Peters is 72 years old. “And her party has not adopted any particular new policies that would suggest that her age has made any difference – with the possible exception of her strong stand on climate change,” he told CGTN.

Despite its new image, Kurz’s OeVP remains the same party that has ruled Austria almost continuously since 1945.

Once in power, young leaders face established rules and procedures, need to work the system to get results, and may struggle to fulfill high expectations.

“Their message of ‘changing politics’ and bringing hope might be a bit out of step with the realities of the day-to-day policymaking process,” warned Raynauld.

Macron’s approval ratings have now slipped to 42 percent from 62 percent when he took office in May, according to a recent survey by Ifop for Le Journal du Dimanche daily.

Screenshot of the Twitter account of Manfred Weber, chair of the EPP group in the European Parliament. /CGTN

Perhaps surprisingly, lack of experience has not seemed to be a major concern for voters electing 30-somethings to government. A total of 31.5 percent of Austrian voters cast their ballot for Kurz’s New OeVP on October 15, the party’s best result in over a decade.

As for Ardern, “so far there is no sign that she lacks the necessary experience to perform the role of prime minister,“ noted Duncan.

“What they lack in experience… they can easily make up in wisdom and optimism,” added Winograd. “If they learn from those mistakes there is no reason why they can’t govern just as effectively, if not more so, than their older predecessors.”

With the wave of young leaders just starting, “we will have to wait and see if their ‘hope and change’ lasts,” he said.