What's new in Trump’s national security vision?

World
Europe

Climate change is out, economic competitiveness is in; the border wall is in, multilateral trade is out. China and Russia are “revisionist powers,” Iran and the DPRK are “rogue states,” ISIL is a “transnational threat organization.”

A President Trump speech on Monday reminiscent of an “America First” campaign address was accompanied by a 68-page national security strategy (NSS), in which foreign policy experts attempted to piece together a coherent world view based on Trump’s rhetoric and tweets, without straying too far from existing US policy.

The Trump vision accentuated competition above cooperation and emphasized economic strength as primary. It certainly represented a sharp change in rhetoric from previous administrations. But has there been a comprehensive policy shift in practice?

US President Donald Trump delivers remarks regarding the Administration's National Security Strategy in Washington DC, US on December 18, 2017. /Reuters Photo

The “principled realism” message wasn’t strictly isolationist – there were pledges to intervene overseas to end instability, support for Europe and a commitment to bilateral trade – but it carried a more aggressive tone towards engagement.

“We recognize that weakness is the surest path to conflict, and unrivaled power is the most certain means of defense,” the president said.

Part of Trump’s pitch was a huge investment in military strength after years of constrained Pentagon budgets, but as the new president has repeatedly discovered since taking office, such decisions are not solely in his gift.

Trump attacked his predecessors, railed against immigration policy and boasted about the US economic record since he took office – “GDP will be one of America’s truly greatest weapons” – but was the speech in tune with the strategy document, and political realities?

China and Russia

Trump said the US was engaged in a “new era of competition”, and identified China and Russia as “rival powers… that seek to challenge American influence, values and wealth.” Yet the president also said he wanted to build a “great partnership” with both countries.

Trump mentioned China only once in the speech whereas the NSS document makes frequent references, including labeling the country a "revisionist" power determined to “shape a world antithetical to US values and interests.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd R) and his wife Peng Liyuan (1st R) welcome US President Donald Trump (2nd L) and his wife Melania Trump at the Palace Museum in Beijing, China on November 8, 2017. /Xinhua Photo

The Chinese embassy in the US on Tuesday warned that while cooperation between China and the US will lead to a win-win outcome, confrontation will result in mutual losses.

Trump described Russia as a “rival power” but in the next breath praised US-Russia intelligence cooperation, which he said had recently prevented a major terrorist attack in St Petersburg.

The strategy document takes a far tougher line on Russia than the president. Russia is accused of sowing misinformation to “undermine the legitimacy of democracies,” as well as “invasions of Georgia and Ukraine.” But no direct mention is made of the alleged attempts to influence the 2016 US presidential election.

Former Trump strategist Stephen Bannon. /Reuters Photo

Trump’s China rhetoric appeared to be a reversion to the strident tone he struck on the campaign trail, after 11 months in office in which he has frequently praised the country.

“President Trump has rejected Gary Cohn and the West Wing globalist accommodation of the regime in Beijing,” Steve Bannon, Trump’s former strategist, told the Financial Times. “Trump promised to get tough on China and with his strategic plan he is well on his way.”

The harsher tone also breaks with that taken by recent presidents. Bill Clinton called China a “strategic partner”, and Barack Obama’s 2015 NSS stated, “our cooperation with China is unprecedented”.

Global threats

Trump has repeatedly made the case that economic security is a prerequisite for national security, and trade imbalances are identified in the NSS as a key threat to the US.

"The United States will no longer turn a blind eye to violations, cheating, or economic aggression," the NSS document reads, and Trump was quick to hit out at politicians who “presided over one disappointment after another.”

The president made one mention of “climate” during his speech, and that was to denounce the “very expensive and unfair Paris Climate Accord.” Whereas Obama identified climate change as a serious threat to US national security, the NSS references the issue just four times – and only obliquely – in a section titled “embrace energy dominance.”

US President Donald Trump waves after delivering remarks regarding the Administration's National Security Strategy in Washington DC, US on December 18, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Trump’s stark difference in approach towards multilateralism was emphasized in his celebration of pulling out of the Paris deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, as well as renewed criticism of the Iran nuclear deal.

The DPRK and Iran were at the forefront of threats identified in the NSS, described as “rogue regimes that violate all principles of free and civilized states.”

Iran was accused of sponsoring terrorism around the world, while National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, who authored the NSS, on Tuesday said the US has "to be prepared, if necessary, to compel the denuclearization of North Korea (DPRK)." The NSS identifies “transnational threat organizations”, such as ISIL, as a further threat.

The strategy document also suggests a broadening of the use of nuclear weapons and stresses the importance of nuclear deterrence to US defense policy. The Obama-era aspiration of a nuclear-free world has been dropped.

“While nuclear deterrence strategies cannot prevent all conflict, they are essential to prevent nuclear attack, non-nuclear strategic attacks, and large-scale conventional aggression,” the NSS reads.

A clear foreign policy?

The NSS sets a course for US foreign policy that encompasses some of the more anti-establishment Trump views on immigration with core Republican values on a strong defense.

Trump’s tendency to speak to both sides of an argument – and occasional divergence from the NSS message even in Monday’s speech – was a reminder of the difficulties in prejudging the president’s intent.

The main tenets of the speech, however, were fairly consistent themes of Trump’s political life: reciprocal trade, rejection of multilateralism, strong military, power through economic success.

The rhetoric was strong and the emphasis on competition ahead of cooperation a switch from the past, but to turn language into action will require funding as well as political support and skill in the years ahead.

11158km