Rise of Hope in Japan poses electoral danger to PM Abe

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In or out? That’s the question on the lips of political watchers in Japan, as speculation swirls over the plans of Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike.

The Yomiuri newspaper reported on Tuesday that the 65-year-old Koike, whose Party of Hope is a fast-developing threat to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), had denied that she would run for a seat in the lower house in the October 22 election.

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, head of the Party of Hope, at the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo, on September 28, 2017. /Reuters Photo

"I have been saying I will not run for the election from the beginning," Koike said in an interview with the Yomiuri, Reuters reported. "I'm 100 percent not running for the election.”

The denial appears emphatic, but Koike will not be eligible to take the premiership unless she runs.

And although her nascent party is performing well in the polls and picking up support from other opposition groups, analysts believe it would be boosted further if she stood as a challenger to Abe.

Why has Abe called an election?

Shinzo Abe didn’t need to call an election until December 2018, but with his own approval ratings surging in September and the main opposition Democratic Party struggling he saw an opportunity.

Abe has been linked to cronyism scandals and has failed to overcome deflation, but the Japanese economy has enjoyed six straight quarters of growth and unemployment is below three percent.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (2nd R) delivers a speech atop of campaign van as coalition Komeito Party leader Natsuo Yamaguchi (2nd L) looks on in Tokyo, Japan, on September 28, 2017. /Reuters Photo

“I decided to call this election because we must overcome the national crisis of the threat from the DPRK and an aging population by obtaining a mandate from the people,” he told reporters after the date for the election was confirmed.

He hopes his bloc will retain a two-thirds "super majority" in the lower house, although a simple majority would be sufficient to keep him in office.

A victory would put him on course to becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, and give him another chance at achieving his ambition of changing Japan’s pacifist constitution.

Why is Koike saying she won't stand?

Yuriko Koike was elected governor of Tokyo as an independent in August 2016 and previously served as Japan’s first female defense minister under Abe in an LDP government.

To become eligible to be prime minister, she would have to stand for a seat in the lower house. She has until October 10 to decide, but has so far ruled out standing. As Tokyo governor, she wields considerable executive power. Would the 65-year-old be willing to give that up only to become the leader of the opposition?

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike attends a news conference to announce the Party of Hope in To‍kyo, Japan, on September 25, 2017. /Reuters Photo

She is in a “dilemma of irresponsibility”, according to Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. To stand would mean abandoning voters who elected her governor only one year ago, not to stand would mean standing by after many have left other parties to support her.

She could wait to see how her party evolves and stand at the next election. After all, Party of Hope was only formed on September 25, 2017.

Similar stances, campaign clashes

The LDP and Party of Hope are both conservative, pro-business parties and agree on controversial proposals to amend the country’s pacifist constitution. However, three clashes have played out repeatedly on the campaign trail.

Sales tax: Abe wants to use revenue from an increase in sales tax to fund a two trillion yen (18 billion US dollar) education and childcare package. Koike wants the sales tax rise to be postponed, warning it would pose risks to the economy.

DPRK: Abe has proposed strict implementation of sanctions on Pyongyang, rather than pursuing dialogue. This approach has been credited with boosting his support, but Koike accuses him of creating a political vacuum by calling an unnecessary election at a critical juncture.

Nuclear power: Nuclear power is a contentious issue in Japan following the 2011 Fukushima crisis. Koike wants Japan to find ways to eliminate its dependence on nuclear power by 2030, Abe thinks the country should retain nuclear power as a part of its energy mix.

What do the polls show?

Japanese electors will cast two votes on October 22: one for a local constituency representative elected via first-past-the-post, another for a proportionate party list. There are 465 seats in play.

The Liberal Democratic Party's election leaflets at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on October 2, 2017. /Reuters Photo

The emergence of the Party of Hope has had dire consequences for Japan’s main opposition parties. Many of the Democratic Party have already said they will run under the banner of Koike, and have been freed to do so by the party. However, a left-wing faction has reformed under a new banner – the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan – creating a potential anti-Abe split.

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike (C), the leader of her new Party of Hope, raises her fist with party members in Tokyo, Japan, on September 27, 2017. /Reuters Photo

A Kyodo News survey published on Sunday indicated that 45.9 percent of voters would choose Abe as prime minister, against 33 percent for Koike.

The survey also suggested that in the proportional representation part of the election, the LDP had the backing of 24.1 percent of voters, over nine points ahead of Party of Hope. The Komeito party, currently in coalition with the LDP, and the Japanese Communist Party each received 4.9 percent support.

However, the campaigns will be most interested in another group of voters: the 42.8 percent of respondents who remain undecided. Could they be swung by Koike standing? Win the undecideds, win the election.

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