What to watch: Trump’s ‘America First’ security strategy

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US President Donald Trump will lay out his national security strategy (NSS) on Monday, outlining how his "America First" vision aims to address domestic and global threats.

The strategy, summarized as "peace through strength" by National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster and signed off by Trump in early December, is expected to focus on projection of US economic competitiveness as well as traditional security issues.

The thinking underpinning the NSS was revealed by McMaster, who authored the plan along with his outgoing deputy Nina Powell and strategist Nadia Schadlow, in a speech on December 12 in which he said "geopolitics are back and are back with a vengeance."

White House National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster gives a keynote speech in front of the Jamestown Foundation on December 13, 2017 in Washington DC, US. /VCG Photo

Speaking to the Policy Exchange think tank, McMaster said the strategy featured four "vital national interests": protecting the homeland, advancing American prosperity, preserving peace through strength, and enhancing American influence.

The NSS is intended to bring greater clarity to foreign policy direction under Trump. "It is a major signaling document, filling in the blanks for the bureaucracy and putting a clear narrative behind Trump's campaign promises," Michael Allen, who has advised the Trump team, told the LA Times.

Themes to watch

Trade: Trump is expected to identify economic competitiveness as a core feature of US security. McMaster has previously signaled that renegotiating trade agreements would be a central part of the NSS. The agenda reiterates a break from the Obama policy of security through multilateralism.

Breitbart, the conservative news outlet with close ties to the president, stated on Saturday that "in the Trump administration’s view, the United States’ greatest weapon is a strong and sustainable gross domestic product."

Homeland: The NSS is expected to have a major focus on protection of the US homeland, with countering terrorism and weapons of mass destruction likely to be prioritized.

Issues such as university accessibility as a means to develop expertise are also set to feature. "There is more focus on homeland security and protecting the homeland than any NSS before," a source with knowledge of the document told Axios.

Border wall: Trump has been less vocal about his plan for a border wall between the US and Mexico in recent weeks, but it will doubtlessly be mentioned in the NSS. US policy towards immigration has been a key theme of the Trump presidency, and is likely to feature heavily.

US military: Increasing spending on the military was one of Trump’s main messages on the campaign trail and has continued in the White House, so an emphasis on building up the strength of the US armed forces is expected.

DPRK: The DPRK’s nuclear weapons program has been a dominant theme of the Trump presidency, and will likely occupy a prominent role in the strategy document. McMaster has called on the global community to take action beyond the resolutions adopted by the UN, saying it "might be our last best chance to avoid military conflict."

Russia: McMaster argued in his speech on December 12 that Russia was threatening the US with "so-called new-generation warfare." The alleged influence of Russia in the 2016 presidential election – denied by Moscow – means Trump's approach to Russia will be watched closely.

Iran: Trump campaigned to abandon the Iran nuclear deal and was reportedly furious at having to re-certify it early in his presidency. Reporting ahead of publication of the NSS suggested the president will label Iran a "rogue nation."

Middle East: Trump caused outrage across the globe by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in early December. There has been speculation that the controversial move could be part of a broader push for peace in the Middle East involving a coalition of countries, so any mention will be closely scrutinized.

Afghanistan: Trump campaigned on withdrawing the US from Afghanistan, but has agreed to increase troop numbers since taking the White House on the advice of McMaster and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.

China: Senior officials told Reuters on Saturday that Trump would name China as a "competitor" in the speech.

Terror and ISIL 2.0: Iraq and Syria claim to have defeated ISIL in their own countries, but even as the terror group’s plan to create a caliphate looks to have been undermined the global terror threat remains. McMaster has cited "transnational terrorist organizations" including radical Islamist groups as an ongoing threat.

And attention is now turning to how to prevent the creation of a vacuum – like that which allowed ISIL to grow – to stop the emergence of an ISIL 2.0.

Space: Trump announced plans to send Americans back to the moon last week, but technological advancements – such as the so-called "weaponization of space" and cyberwarfare – are likely to be included in the NSS.

Climate: President Barack Obama cited climate change as a threat to US security, but Trump has announced his intention to withdraw the country from the Paris agreement. Whether climate change is mentioned in the strategy – or if the focus is on energy security – will be closely watched.