China, India to gain as Saudi-UAE deal splits Gulf states

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A new strategic alliance struck between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) earlier this week will not only undermine the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) but will have far-reaching consequences on the power balance in the region and beyond, according to international analysts.

“The alliance terminally weakens the GCC. The bloc is now effectively split into two sides, one adhering to the Saudi regional agenda (Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain) and one which takes a more independent approach (Qatar, Oman and Kuwait),” Kadira Pethiyagoda, a former Australian diplomat and a non-resident fellow at Brookings Doha Center, told CGTN Digital.

In the longer run, this may provide opportunities to other powers such as China and India to expand their presence in the region by engaging with individual Gulf countries, particularly the ones that have a relatively independent foreign policy.

Leaders and representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) attend a meeting during their annual summit in Kuwait City, Kuwait, December 5, 2017. /Reuters Photo

“This strengthens the hand of most outside powers in their ability to deal with individual GCC countries, particularly those under less Saudi influence, like Qatar, Kuwait and Oman. This will likely benefit India and China which are increasingly important economic and strategic partners to the Gulf states,” said Pethiyagoda.

Particularly from China’s perspective, Pethiyagoda felt that countries like Oman, “whose relations with the US are relatively weaker, may in the future provide even greater opportunity for Beijing’s strategic entry [in the Gulf region].”

“Chinese and Indian stances on regional conflicts, which sit somewhere in between US and Saudi positions, and the Russia-Iran axis, may also receive better reception from states like Oman and Qatar if there is less pressure to adopt a unified GCC position,” he said, adding: “India’s reaction to the fracturing [of the GCC] will likely be to re-emphasize its friend-to-all approach.”

'With us or against us'

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al Jubeir walks after a meeting of Foreign Ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Bayan Palace, in Kuwait City, Kuwait, on December 4, 2017. /Reuters Photo

In a surprise move on Tuesday, the UAE announced the formation of the new military, political and trade committee with Saudi Arabia just hours ahead of a crucial meeting of the GCC – a political and economic alliance of six Gulf states of Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Oman – in the Kuwaiti capital.

The new committee “is assigned to cooperate and co-ordinate between the two countries in all military, political, economic, trade and cultural fields, as well as others, in the interest of the two countries,” according to a decree issued by UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

“The new alliance signals Saudi Arabia taking its 'with us or against us' approach to a new level. Riyadh is sending a clear message that it demands nothing less than complete loyalty in foreign policy from its smaller neighbors, less they be cast adrift,” said Pethiyagoda.

The development came amid heightened divisions within the GCC over the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar for the past six months. According to reports, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain were miffed by Kuwait inviting Qatar for the bloc’s annual summit, in defiance of their relentless calls for Doha’s suspension from the GCC.

Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah (right) welcomes his Qatari counterpart Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani upon his arrival to attend the annual summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), in Kuwait City, Kuwait, on December 5, 2017. /Reuters Photo

The Gulf trio – that along with Egypt have imposed the months-long trade and travel ban on Qatar – stopped short of boycotting the meeting at Kuwait City, but snubbed Qatar and Kuwait by downsizing their presence at the summit.

The three countries sent lower-ranking officials for the event, which saw participation from only two heads of states – Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani and Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah as the host. Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said followed the recent tradition of sending a high representative.

Kuwait’s 88-year-old emir has been playing the role of a mediator ever since the dispute erupted this June, shuffling between the Gulf capitals, in a bid to resolve the crisis. Oman has publicly remained neutral on the entire affair, but political observers suggest Muscat’s decision not to join the siege of Qatar is in itself a show of support.

The Saudi-UAE alliance may lead to hardening of positions on all sides and therefore reduce the chances of the embargo on Qatar being lifted.

“Qatar will see that the chances of normalizing economic ties with Saudi, UAE and Bahrain are even weaker so will likely continue to build economic links with Turkey, Iran and others to mitigate the impact of the embargo,” said Pethiyagoda.

Rift may strengthen Iran's position

Kuwait's Foreign Minister Sabah Al Khalid Al Sabah (right) gestures during a news conference with Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, following the annual summit of the GCC, in Kuwait City, Kuwait, on December 5, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Following the UAE’s announcement of its new alliance with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait’s emir called an end to the GCC meeting within hours of its start on Tuesday, making it perhaps the shortest-lived meeting in the bloc’s history. The meeting was initially planned to run for two days.

An evidently anxious Sheikh Sabah called for revising the GCC charter to set up a “mechanism for dispute resolution.” He pleaded that "any conflict between our countries, regardless of its magnitude, the GCC [meeting] should be kept away from it and should not be affected by it and the mechanism of its meeting should not be stopped."

The Kuwaitis had earlier started the meeting by reciting verses from the Quran warning against allowing differences to break up believers and weaken them.

The sudden development has cast serious doubts over the future of the GCC, which was formed in 1981 to promote security and economic cooperation among the six Gulf states and counter regional threats after the Iranian revolution in 1979.

“The relevance to the GCC summit was clear in that Riyadh no longer places much value in the GCC, first not sending senior leaders and then announcing a separate alliance,” said Pethiyagoda.

He emphasized that a split GCC will strengthen Iran’s strategic position in the region. “Tehran can continue to build individual relations with states under less Saudi influence. The lack of any likelihood of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar further pushes Doha to maintaining an independent foreign policy. Other GCC states may also feel that they need to diversify their partnerships in future.”

Saudi, UAE: Natural allies?

Abu Dhabi's powerful Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan (left), is also believed to be close to his Saudi counterpart Mohammed bin Salman. /Reuters Photo

However, others like Ghanem Nuseibeh, a strategic expert and founder of the think tank Cornerstone Global Associates, saw the Saudi-UAE alliance as a natural outcome of recent regional drifts.

“The GCC’s effectiveness as a bloc has greatly diminished over time and the new alliance will make up for that,” he said, adding: “It will not necessarily replace the GCC but it will cover more areas on a more practical level than what the GCC was able to achieve.”

Anthony Harris, former British ambassador to the UAE, agreed. “It makes sense for the two largest economies in the region to forge an alliance. The collective population of Saudi Arabia and the UAE is about 40 million, while the rest of the GCC countries have about 12 million,” he said.

“This reinforces a trend in closer cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh which has been growing ever since Mohammed bin Salman became Saudi Crown Prince,” he added.

Nuseibeh underlined that the newly-forged alliance is a “formalization of the ties ... that have been strengthening over the past few years.”

He felt that the alliance “will create greater alignment between both countries at all levels and in multiple sectors and will also positively affect the private sector and ordinary citizens of both countries.”

“On a political level, it will strength the positions of both countries as they deal on the international arena, speaking with a united voice,” he added.

Move may backfire in Yemen

A Houthi militant reacts as he sits on a tank after the death of Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sanaa, Yemen, on December 4, 2017. /Reuters Photo‍

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have fostered close ties in recent years with both pushing for assertive foreign policy. Troops from both countries form the core of the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Abu Dhabi's powerful Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is also believed to be close to his Saudi counterpart Mohammed bin Salman.

The announcement of the Saudi-UAE joint committee came a day after the killing of Yemen’s former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, which has pushed the war-torn nation into further chaos, prompting speculation about its future.

The timing of the alliance “also signals the feeling of threat faced by the Saudis in relation to their campaign in Yemen, where the challenges have led them to close ranks,” said Pethiyagoda, who felt, however, that the move may backfire in Yemen.

“This may cause countries like Kuwait [currently part of the Saudi-led coalition) to question the degree of their involvement. Weakening of the GCC will help embolden the anti-Saudi forces in Yemen,” he concluded.

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