China-US Trade Tensions: Will disputes raise prices in China?
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The trade disputes between China and the United States are raising concerns about price fluctuations here in China. The Chinese government said it will increase duties on American agricultural products if needed. But would that raise domestic food prices in turn? And how would the prices of industrial goods be affected? Our reporter Chen Tong has been talking to some experts to find out.
China's demand for soybeans is huge, having increased from only 11 million tons in 1996 to about 94 million tons last year. Filling that demand relies heavily on foreign imports, however, and a large amount of those comes from the United States. Data from the Ministry of Finance show that 62 percent of exported U.S. soybeans now go to China -- almost 33 million tons in 2017. If an additional tariff were added on the imports, the domestic price of soybeans could increase, at least in the short term. Experts say the impact wouldn't be substantial, however.
LIU XUEZHI, SENIOR ANALYST BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS "If the economic relationship between China and the United States continues worsen, the price of imports like soybeans could increase, along with the prices for other related agricultural products. That would have an impact on the inflation level, but the effects would be limited. Food prices account for only a small part of the CPI, there are many other sectors. So at least for now, the trade disputes will have a limited impact on our inflation."
Factory gate prices are a different story, however. The plan being considered in Washington targets China's manufacturing sector, and the disputes have already driven down prices for some industrial products. Futures prices for rebar, iron ore and hard coke have all been declining recently. If China's manufacturing products meet challenges from increased tariffs in US markets, factory over-capacity could become a serious issue. If that happens, the PPI would probably continue to decline.
LIU XUEZHI, SENIOR ANALYST BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS "Prices for industrial products will continue to narrow. We saw prices for many industrial products decline in March, and the declining trend will continue."
Today's PPI figures show that prices in the gas production and supply sector declined from February, while factory prices in automobile manufacturing also fell.