The International Monetary Fund on Monday warned of growing risks to the U.S. economy. The IMF noted that a deepening of trade disputes, or a reversal of the supportive financial conditions would support material risks. The IMF also noted that the U.S. public debt is on an unsustainable path and it's expected to keep rising. CGTN's KARINA HUBER has more from New York.

By some measures, the U.S. economy is in better shape than it's been in a long time. The stock market is soaring. Unemployment is at a near 50-year low and in the first quarter of this year, GDP topped three percent. But some economists warn the U.S. economy could still take a turn for the worse.

GREGORY DACO, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST OXFORD ECONOMICS "So far, we have an economy that's been growing at a two-and-a-half or three percent pace, but with fiscal stimulus dissipating, with global growth remaining relatively lackluster, the increase in trade tensions could really push growth below that 2 percent mark and closer to that one percent growth zone, which we call the danger zone for the U.S. economy."

This week the Federal Reserve said uncertainties could change the economic outlook. It is widely expected to lower interest rates before the end of this year. A survey of 52 forecasters by the National Association of Business Economics puts the odds of a U.S. recession in 2019 at 15 percent. But by the end of 2020, those odds rise to 60 percent. Daco, the survey chair, says the main worry is escalating protectionism, especially if consumer goods get hit with tariffs.

GREGORY DACO, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST OXFORD ECONOMICS "If households are a bit more cautious with their purchases that then affects income and feeds into employment and business decisions to hire. And that feeds back into the private sector's spending ability."

Economist Paul Sheard agrees business confidence is key. He doesn't think it's time to ring alarm bells yet.

PAUL SHEARD, SENIOR FELLOW HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL "One has to be a little bit careful about sort of assuming somehow a shock is coming, therefore we will have a recession. Guess what policy makers, central banks, in particular, are watching the same developments and if they think those developments are dangerous and could knock the economy off course, they will take action."

KARINA HUBER NEW YORK "Does the Federal Reserve have enough tools to overcome the effects of a prolonged trade war? That's a big question mark right now. What seems clear to many though is that if trade tensions escalate, it could get rocky for the U.S. economy. Karina Huber CGTN, New York."