Pinera vs Guillier: Nail-biting finale to Chilean presidential race

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Chile goes to the polls in a knife-edge presidential election run-off on Sunday, pitting a rightist billionaire against a center-left former journalist in Latin America’s most developed country.

The first round on November 19 saw conservative Sebastian Pinera finish comfortably ahead of his rivals with 36.6 percent of the vote to just 22.7 percent for Alejandro Guillier, who narrowly beat leftist Beatriz Sanchez’s 20.3 percent.

However, the 14-point lead for Pinera was smaller than pundits anticipated – and markets in the world’s largest copper producer plunged in response to the success of left-leaning candidates.

Pinera and Guillier have sought to strike policies to attract the 40 percent of voters who opted for more extreme options, and particularly supporters of Sanchez and Frente Amplio, the coalition of left-leaning parties she represents.

A woman places a sticker reading "President" on a ballot box as polling stations are being set up at the National stadium in Santiago on December 16, 2017 on the eve of the presidential election. /VCG Photo

Turnout has been a decisive factor in Chilean elections in recent years — only 46 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the first round — so for Pinera and Guillier, persuading Chileans to turn out for their second choice could prove the key to victory.

Chile’s issues

Chile is heralded as Latin America’s most prosperous and developed nations, and is designated “high income” by the World Bank. However, growth has slowed to an average of 1.8 percent a year since outgoing President Michelle Bachelet took office in 2014 and inequality is high.

The slowdown under Bachelet coincided with a drop in the global price of Chile’s largest export, copper, and as the president raised taxes on businesses in order to pay for increases in benefits. Private investment and exports have dipped markedly.

After years of growth and expanded access to education and healthcare, the country is contending with new challenges — and the unexpected success of Frente Amplio in the November election signaled the rise of a populist faction seeking a different approach.

Sebastian Pinera

Backed by Chile Vamos coalition

Chilean presidential candidate Sebastian Pinera delivers a speech during is closing campaign rally in Santiago, Chile November 16, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Background: Pinera was president of Chile from 2010 to 2014, during which time growth averaged 5.4 percent annually. However, his term ended with low popularity ratings and mass protests over inequality. He is a rich man personally – Forbes estimates his wealth at 2.7 billion US dollars – and has pledged to make Chile the first Latin American country to achieve “developed nation” status with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Policies: The 68-year-old has promised to create 600,000 jobs, narrow the budget deficit and double growth by cutting the corporate tax rate and scaling back Bachelet’s tax, labor and education reforms. His blueprint for Chile’s future is focused on boosting growth by attracting greater business investment, but he has also made concessions to leftist voters by promising to expand free university access.

Support: Pinera has strong support from the business and investor community, as reflected in the market slump that followed his below-expectations first-round result. He has been endorsed by independent candidate Jose Antonio Kast, who won 7.9 percent in the first round.

Alejandro Guillier

Backed by Nueva Mayoria coalition

Chilean presidential candidate Alejandro Guillier delivers a speech during his closing campaign rally in Santiago, Chile, November 16, 2017. /Reuters Photo‍

Background: The former television journalist and sitting senator is a member of Bachelet’s leftist coalition, but has tried to maintain a distance from the current president — her government’s approval ratings are languishing — by presenting himself as an outsider while voicing support for her policy direction.

Policies: The 64-year-old aims to reduce inequality by pushing forward with Bachelet’s policies aimed at benefiting students, women and workers. He has pledged to diversify the country’s copper-dominated economy and write protections for workers and indigenous communities into law by rewriting the dictatorship-era constitution.

Support: Guillier has secured the all-important support of third-place finisher Sanchez, and will be hoping the one in five voters who backed her in round one will propel him to victory. However, his comparatively moderate approach to political and economic reforms may not inspire enough of Sanchez’s supporters to secure the presidency.

Soldiers stand guard as polling stations are being set up at the National stadium in Santiago on December 16, 2017 on the eve of the presidential election. /VCG Photo

Who will be Chile’s next president?

Pinera had been expected to win the first round of voting easily, but having failed to achieve a majority in November the final result is in the balance.

The choices made by supporters of Frente Amplio will likely be key. Although Sanchez has backed Guillier, the coalition has not. If its supporters turn out for Guillier, the center-left candidate will be in contention. If they stay home, the right-wing Pinera will likely return to the top job.

But with no polling allowed in the weeks before election day, the identity of Chile’s next president is impossible to call.

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