High stakes in neck-and-neck Catalonia election

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A record turnout is expected as Catalonians head to the polls on Thursday after a tumultuous three months in Spain’s affluent northeastern region.

The stakes are high in elections called by the Spanish government in the wake of a controversial independence referendum on October 1.

A majority in the Catalan 135-seat parliament for unionists would be a major blow for the independence movement, while a majority for the separatists would breathe new life into their campaign for an independent Catalonia.

What do the polls say?

The latest polls are too close to call the balance of power in a new parliament, with the odds shortest on neither bloc winning the 68 seats necessary for a majority.

Seven parties are expected to take seats: three unionist, three separatist, and one without an absolutist stance.

Ines Arrimadas, leader of the center-right Ciudadanos party /VCG Photo

Polling analysis by Spanish newspaper El Pais suggests that center-right unionist party Ciudadanos, led by Ines Arrimadas, will marginally win the highest percentage of votes with 23.3 percent, and pro-independence party Republican Left of Catalonia (on 22.2 percent of the vote) the largest number of seats.

The El Pais model puts separatist party Junts per Catalunya, led by former Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont, in third place with 17.7 percent and the unionist Socialist party in fourth on 15.3 percent. The radical independence-supporting CUP is on course to win 6.2 percent of the vote, followed by the unionist Popular Party with 5.5 percent.

Posters promote the exiled pro-independence leader Carles Puigdemont on the streets of Barcelona /VCG photo

The wildcard, a likely kingmaker in the event of a hung parliament, is the anti-austerity Podemos party. It does not support independence, but does back Catalonia’s right to hold an independence referendum if authorized by Spain. The El Pais model puts Podemos on eight percent of the vote.

What could happen next?

The fallout from the independence referendum has exposed divisions in Catalan society – leaders of the independence movement are in jail or exile – and hit the region’s economy, with more than 3,000 businesses relocating their registered headquarters since October.

The Spanish government hopes a unionist majority would begin to heal those rifts and restore momentum to a region that is one of its most important economic drivers.

The independence movement would take a parliamentary majority as a signal to continue its fight for separation from Spain, although leaders have indicated they would seek talks with Madrid rather than attempt a unilateral breakaway.

Election ballots of the main Catalan political parties /VCG Photo

But the most likely result, a hung parliament, would probably mean lengthy negotiations over a coalition and further uncertainty.

No single party is expected to reach a majority, so difficult coalition talks are almost inevitable even if one bloc wins more than half the seats. Within the two blocs, there are significant policy differences between the parties.

"Protracted and messy government formation negotiations are likely," Antonio Barroso, deputy research director for Teneo Intelligence, told AFP.

A vote could be held in the new parliament in January, setting a two-month deadline on electing a new premier. A failure to do so would lead to fresh elections.

Why are elections being held?

Pro-independence parties won a slim majority in the Catalan parliament in 2015, and gradually worked towards a controversial independence referendum which was held on October 1.

The poll went ahead despite Spain’s constitutional court ruling it illegal, and around 90 percent of the 2.26 million people who voted opted for independence on a turnout of 42 percent.

Protests broke out in Catalonia in the wake of the October 1 independence referendum. /VCG Photo

Almost four weeks of wrangling followed, before Catalan MPs voted to declare independence from Spain on October 27. Hours later, Spain’s senate voted to give Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy the power to take control of the region. Rajoy sacked the regional cabinet, suspended the region’s autonomy, and called snap elections for December 21.

Several separatist politicians were subsequently accused of rebellion and sedition. Puigdemont fled to Belgium, and has been campaigning via videolink.

An emergency cybersecurity plan has been developed by Spain’s National Intelligence Center, meanwhile, after claims from the Madrid government that Russian hackers were seeking to influence the result. The Russian government has dismissed the accusations.

Voting stations will open across Catalonia on Thursday at 08:00 GMT and close at 19:00 GMT.

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