Regional challenges: Elections and hotspots to watch in 2018

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Elections will be battled and new leaders will emerge across the world in 2018, while tensions simmer in an array of longstanding regional disputes.

The Castro era will end in Cuba, over 10 new leaders could emerge in Africa and Latin America, change is set to accelerate in Saudi Arabia, the US midterms may herald a Democratic wave, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hope to be celebrating re-election as the World Cup kicks off in Moscow in June.

CGTN looks ahead to some of the most consequential political events in 2018.

Watchlist: Elections in Zimbabwe, Mali, DRC, Sierra Leone; fate of long-term leaders; Zuma in South Africa; terror in Sahel, Somalia; violence in DRC, CAR, South Sudan

Africa has a series of elections in store for 2018 with Zimbabwe, Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sierra Leone and South Sudan all scheduled to head to the polls. If the last 12 months are anything to go by, there could be further unforeseen changes in leadership on the continent.

In 2017, Angola, Zimbabwe and Gambia bade goodbye to strongmen who had been in power for decades. The world will be watching to see whether their successors can break from the past and implement much-needed reforms. Other long-lasting leaders like Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni, the DRC’s Joseph Kabila and Togo’s Faure Gnassingbe have shown no inclination that they are ready to relinquish power.

In South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa’s election as head of the African National Congress could see President Jacob Zuma ousted from office and facing corruption charges. And former footballer George Weah, newly elected as Liberian president, is sure to make headlines.

Extremist groups like al-Shabaab in Somalia and Boko Haram in the Sahel have continued to spread terror in the region, while violence has raged on in the DRC, Central African Republic (CAR) and civil war-torn South Sudan. This situation could worsen in 2018, analysts say.

War-torn Libya could see elections even as division within the country continues, while Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi could increase his influence in northern Africa and the Middle East.

Watchlist: Saudi-Iran rivalry; Jerusalem, Israeli-Palestinian dispute; Yemen; Syria; ISIL; Saudi Vision 2030

The Middle East has long been at the fault line of geopolitical turbulence with unceasing instability and conflict impacting many countries. The region is crucial to global security and economic stability due to its vast oil reserves and strategic location along important shipping lines.

Dispute and instability continues; an ongoing rift between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors; an intense Saudi-Iran rivalry manifesting in multiple conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon; the enormous political, cultural and economic transition underway in Saudi Arabia; and uproar among Palestinians and Arabs over the US decision to recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. Attempting to predict how the year ahead might roll out in the Middle East is akin to guessing where all the carrom-men might end up after the first strike.

However, while the geopolitical climate in the region may not inspire optimism, there are a number of positives, particularly Saudi Arabia’s bold moves towards implementing its Vision 2030 agenda – which promises more rights to women and a progressive social plan – and the collapse of ISIL in Syria and Iraq.

Observers say Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz is preparing to abdicate in favor of his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which could very well happen in 2018. In historic developments, Saudi women will start driving in June while the first movie theaters will open in the conservative Gulf kingdom in March.

Economic growth in the Middle East is likely to rebound in 2018 even as governments adjust to uncertainty over oil prices, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Meanwhile, Iran’s economic recovery could be derailed if the US makes good on its threat to “decertify” the landmark nuclear deal in 2018. The emergence of small protests across the country in December is also a development to watch.

Most analysts agree that there are grounds for cheer in 2018, albeit tempered by the unpredictability of the geopolitical situation.

Watchlist: Elections in Russia, Italy; Brexit; east-west split in EU; Ukraine tensions; Catalonia; Russian World Cup

Europe had a busy 2017, with high profile elections in France, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands as well as the controversial Catalan referendum. Entering 2018, German coalition talks continue and attempts to resolve the crisis in Catalonia were only muddied by regional elections in late December.

Italy and Russia are both scheduled to hold elections in March, and the roles of Moscow and Vladimir Putin are likely to be in focus throughout the year.

The dispute in eastern Ukraine is simmering and tensions between Russia and NATO countries are growing, while Putin, expected to win a new six-year term, is steadily increasing his country’s influence overseas, notably in Syria. And to cap it all, football’s World Cup kicks off in Moscow on June 14.

Another Eurasian country, Turkey, is keen to mend ties with the EU after a year of strained relations, while also strengthening links to Russia. Ankara will be closely examining the deal Britain strikes to leave the EU, given that it could act as a model for other countries keen to engage with the bloc.

Brexit will be again be the headline act for the EU, with a final deal penciled in for the autumn but a litany of difficulties – including the key Irish border issue – need to be resolved.

The east-west split in the EU identified by president of the European Council Donald Tusk is an issue to keep an eye on, as is French President Emmanuel Macron’s push for closer integration. Anti-immigration and eurosceptic rhetoric is increasingly commonplace, and likely to feature heavily in the Italian election.

Watchlist: US midterm elections; NAFTA plus US trade policy; #MeToo; Dreamers; 2020 presidential candidates

November’s midterm elections will be the backdrop for the domestic political scene in the US in 2018, while candidates for the 2020 presidential election will begin to stake out positions ahead of declarations in 2019.

Momentum is behind the Democrats after unexpected Senate and gubernatorial victories in 2017, and the generic ballot puts the party almost 13 points ahead of the Republicans at the end of the year.

Democrats need only 24 seats to win the House of Representatives and two to take the Senate, but they must defend 25 of the 33 Senate seats being contested. All 435 House seats are up for grabs, but pollsters believe a landslide would be necessary to overcome built-in Republican advantages. The establishment versus anti-establishment battle within the Republican Party is also worth watching.

The fate of the Dreamers – people brought to the US illegally as children – will likely make headlines with the DACA program set to expire in March. It could be an opportunity for a bipartisan win for President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings averaged under 38 percent at year-end.

The evolution of the #MeToo movement and how it impacts candidacies in the midterms, as well as the possible presidential campaigns of female Democrats Kirsten Gillibrand and Kamala Harris, will be closely watched.

The Mueller investigation into alleged Russian influence in the 2016 election will continue, while as ever, US foreign policy will be in focus: Will the Trump administration harden its stance on Iran? Will its long promised Middle East peace plan be released? And can a compromise be found in the stand-off with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)?

The future of NAFTA is likely to be in the news, as a renegotiation of the trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico continues. The issue is the biggest facing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2018.

And broader US trade relations will no doubt be in the spotlight. Will Trump follow up his hardline rhetoric on trade imbalances with action?

Watchlist: Elections in Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, Paraguay, Mexico, Costa Rica; end of the Castro era in Cuba

A region growing slowly could vote for widespread change at the top with around 350 million Latin Americans set to cast ballots in six presidential elections in 2018.

In Mexico (July 1), President Enrique Pena Nieto is not eligible to run for a second term and a single round of voting will determine his successor. Against a backdrop of rising crime and corruption, leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrader is ahead in the polls, followed by the ruling PRI party’s Jose Antonio Meade.

In Brazil (October), former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could be set for a return to office – if he can overcome corruption charges. The ongoing saga in Venezuela is set to drag on into 2018, with inflation and crime running wild. There is also uncertainty over elections due in December, after President Nicolas Maduro threatened to ban opposition parties from competing.

Elections for new presidents in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Paraguay are scheduled, while the Castro era is set to come to an end in Cuba with Raul Castro set to stand down as leader in April. The progress of Sebastian Pinera, who won back the Chilean presidency in December, and incumbent Juan Orlando Hernandez, who won a disputed election in Honduras in the same month, will be closely watched.

Watchlist: Korean Peninsula; South China Sea; Japan Constitution

East Asia has been relatively stable in the recent past, growing into a central part of the global economy. But this masks critical unresolved conflicts in the region, most notably on the Korean Peninsula.

2017 was a year dominated by the DPRK's military tests and growing concerns over its advances in nuclear weapons capabilities. The possibility of a war breaking out in the Korean Peninsula is likely to keep the world on tenterhooks in 2018.

The South China Sea remains a thorny issue, but negotiations on the fine print of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea are expected to continue.

In China, the annual Two Sessions will take place and further progress is expected on the Belt and Road Initiative.

Japan faces a turbulent and pivotal year. Amid heightened fears of a nuclear war in the Korean Peninsula, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could use the DPRK issue as an excuse to revise the country’s pacifist constitution. However, revision would require a referendum and that would be a significant personal risk for Abe.

Watchlist: Elections in Pakistan; security situation in Afghanistan; electoral campaigning in India, Bangladesh

South Asia will witness significant developments in 2018 with elections dominating the domestic discourse, according to analysts.

Pakistan will be holding national elections in 2018; whereas India, Afghanistan and Bangladesh will be in campaign mode for national elections in 2019.

Pakistan’s ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party looks vulnerable with a series of corruption charges forcing several key ministers, including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to resign in recent months. However, it remains the favorite to be reelected. The main opposition, the Pakistan People’s Party, is yet to recover from a drubbing in the 2013 elections and the newer Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is yet to grow into a national force.

In neighboring Afghanistan, the security situation will determine whether scheduled local elections in 2018 will be held. The success or the failure of holding the polls is expected to set the tone for the more significant presidential election in 2019.

Bangladesh’s ruling Awami League party has cracked down on political opposition since its victory in the 2014 national election. There are concerns as to whether the government will allow opposition parties to campaign freely in the run up to 2019 national elections.

In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity seems to be losing some of its sheen with his Bharatiya Janata Party on the defensive over controversial economic policies and violence against religious minorities. If the party falters in state elections scheduled for 2018, Modi may start looking vulnerable ahead of the 2019 national elections.

Meanwhile, China’s ties in the region – including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Beijing’s efforts to forge stronger relations with Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bhutan – are growing. China and India had a tense summer during the Donglang stand-off, which was resolved with an agreement to maintain peace and tranquility in the region.

(Zhao Hong and Du Chenxin also contributed to this article.)

Look out for CGTN's preview of possible influencers in 2018.