Analysis: Hard Brexit - A brave new world for the UK?

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Europe

Guest commentary by Zhang Bei‍

In the most important speech after taking office, UK's Prime Minister Theresa May unveiled her much-awaited plan for Brexit. She defended UK’s choice for leaving the European Union by referring to its internationalist history and parliamentary sovereignty tradition.

May envisioned a “global Britain” and brought forward twelve objectives for Brexit negotiations in which the final image of Brexit is revealed.

British Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech on leaving the European Union at Lancaster House in London, January 17, 2017. /CFP Photo

It is generally the “hard Brexit” version - UK will leave the European Single Market, be removed from the jurisdiction of European Court of Justice and take back full control of its border. It is“no partial membership, no associate membership or half-in, half-out,” in May’s words.

May’s speech will finally put to rest the speculation of hard or soft Brexit. Ever since the June 23rd referendum, Brexit has become the dominating topic in British politics, and delivering it has been the core task of Theresa May’s government.

A television screen displays a news channel showing Prime Minister Theresa May making her Brexit speech in London, UK, on January 17, 2017. /CFP Photo

However, half a year after the referendum, Brexit continued to be a blurred word. The labels of “Remainer” or “Leaver” were still widely used.

As the defining settlement, such as UK’s access to the European Single Market, was not clear, there had been so much uncertainty for markets and businesses. The opposition party called the current state shambolic and created enormous pressure for the government to reveal more of its plan.

May’s speech at Lancaster House in London on January 17, 2017 provides clarity on what Britain wants from the EU. /CFP Photo

May’s speech at last provides some clarity on what Britain wants from the EU, so-called “bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement with the European Union,” and paints a rosy picture of a “global Britain” where the UK could further embrace the world with FTAs with countries around the world and continue to be an important economic and security partner for the EU.

However, her vision is probably a bit over-optimistic. It seems to be a little too good to be true if, as she suggested, the UK could leave the European Union and in the meantime be free to opt back into the best parts of the European project, for example by asking for zero tariffs from the single market.

A St George's Cross flag (L) and Union flag fly from poles above a souvenir stall near the Houses of Parliament in London on January 17, 2017. /CFP Photo

The fact that she threatened to change Britain into a tax haven to poach investment if EU offers a “bad deal” is telling that what Britain is asking for is too much for the EU. The negotiation between the two sides is doomed to be long and exhausting.

Nevertheless, the bargaining chips that Britain holds against the EU have become stronger.

A leaked EU minutes suggesting EU may want "special" deal over access to City of London post-Brexit is a sign that commercial self-interest might overtake politics, despite declaration of unity, among remaining EU countries and bodes well for Brexit negotiations.

British Prime Minister Theresa May (C) reacting with European leaders, prior to a family picture during an European Union leaders summit at the European Council in Brussels, October 20, 2016. /CFP Photo

More importantly, US President-elect Donald Trump is a godsend for Brexit negotiations. He called Brexit a “great thing” and promised a quick and fair FTA deal instead of “the back of the queue”.

More significantly, Trump's negative attitude towards the European project further weakens the EU’s standing in negotiations.

May delivers her speech on the third day of the World Economic Forum, just two days after unveiling her blueprint for the country's departure from the EU, on January 19, 2017 in Davos. /CFP Photo

After May’s speech, Britain finally bids farewell to all sorts of half-in, half-out Brexit illusion and embarks on a new journey. Whether it leads to a truly global Britain as the Prime Minister envisions or a “little Britain” that can no longer punch above its weight, the answer is by no means a given.

(Zhang Bei is an assistant research fellow with the European Department at China Institute of International Studies (CIIS). The article reflects the author’s opinion, not necessarily the view of CGTN.)

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