Hungary's Orban set for third term in election

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Hungary’s center-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban is widely expected to win a third consecutive term as Hungarians vote in general elections on Sunday.

Orban has emerged as a controversial figure in Europe over the past eight years, accused of cracking down on the judiciary, the media and civil society, while taking a hard stance against migrants – a position that has put him at odds with many of his EU partners.

Here are a few things to look out for in this election.

Orban and Fidesz

Orban swept to power in 2010 with a two-thirds majority in parliament that allowed him to change the constitution. This was not his first time in office: in 1998, he was elected prime minister for the first time, aged 35.

A billboard targeting Hungarian-US philanthropist George Soros is seen in Budapest, Hungary, October 16, 2017. /VCG Photo

If his Fidesz party wins on Sunday, this will thus mean a fourth term for Orban. He is already the longest-serving leader in the European Union after German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Over the past eight years however, the 54-year-old has garnered criticism for his increasingly authoritarian policies, which have earned him the nickname “Viktator.”

He has pushed through constitutional amendments restricting the constitutional court’s powers, and exerted increasing control over the judiciary and the media, prompting objections from the EU, UN and US.

His recent attacks on US-Hungarian financier George Soros have also revived claims of anti-Semitism.

Migrants face Hungarian police at the main train station in Budapest, Hungary, September 1, 2015. /VCG Photo

On Thursday, the UN Human Rights Committee said Hungary was “still a country where there's a hate speech vogue in private and also in public life."

Analysts also fear that under Orban, Hungary has increasingly moved away from Brussels towards Moscow and Vladimir Putin. The prime minister also has fans among far-right leaders like France's Marine Le Pen and the Netherlands' Geert Wilders.

The issues

Migrants

Orban has long portrayed himself as Hungary’s protector against external threats – from foreign banks, foreign NGOs or the EU. But Europe’s 2015 migrant crisis put him squarely at the center of the continent’s biggest crisis in years.

As hundreds of thousands of refugees streamed into Europe, he ordered a fence built along Hungary's southern border with Serbia and Croatia to stop more migrants coming into the country.

A Polish policeman patrols along the Hungary-Serbia border fence near the village of Asotthalom, Hungary, October 2, 2016. /VCG Photo

Since then, he has consistently advocated closed borders in opposition to Merkel’s “open door” policy, equating migrants with terrorists and arguing that Europe’s “Christian identity” and way of life need to be defended against an onslaught of Muslim and African refugees.

Orban has also opposed EU quotas for member states to take in refugees, finding allies in his fellow Visegrad countries – Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic – and in Hungarian voters who overwhelmingly rejected quotas in a 2016 referendum.

Economy

The economy has been doing well under Orban, with 3.7-percent growth predicted this year. But low wages, emigration, corruption and a growing wealth gap are taking their toll.

While Orban has focused on helping the middle class, others have been left behind, economists say.

Fidesz party supporters hold placards and flags during a peace march in Budapest, Hungary, March 15, 2018. /VCG Photo

The European Commission has described the rise in inequality – prompted by the introduction of a flat tax and cuts to social benefits – as one of the biggest in the EU since the financial crisis.

Data from European statistics agency Eurostat also put Hungary behind Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia in terms of per capita gross domestic product in 2016.

The other candidates

Jobbik – Gabor Vona

Long plagued by accusations of anti-Semitism and links with radical ultranationalist groups, far-right Jobbik has tried to rebuild itself as a more moderate party in recent years and has been successful in appealing to young voters.

Jobbik leader Gabor Vona speaks at a campaign forum in Marcali, Hungary, March 16, 2018. /VCG Photo

The party currently has 23 deputies, making it the third biggest faction in parliament, but it is widely expected to finish second in Sunday’s vote.

Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) – Gergely Karacsony

The MSZP, which succeeded the country’s communist party in 1989, is the second biggest party in parliament at the moment with 29 MPs. In government in 2002-2010, it saw its support crumble after that and underwent a split. It is expected to come third on Sunday.

LMP – Bernadett Szel

The liberal green party was founded in 2009 and has five MPs in the current parliament.

An elderly woman holds a Hungarian Socialist Party MSZP flag during a campaign event in Budapest, Hungary, April 5, 2014. /VCG Photo

Democratic Coalition (DK) – Ferenc Gyurcsany

Resulting from the split in the MSZP, the DK was founded in 2011 and is led by former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. It has four MPs in parliament.

Polls

While Fidesz is predicted to win, most analysts agree Orban’s party is unlikely to secure a two-thirds majority again. And it could even lose its absolute majority, requiring it to look for coalition partners to build a government.

According to the latest data compiled by independent European polling website Poll of Polls, Fidesz stands at 47 percent, with Jobbik in distant second place with 18 percent.

Activists of Hungarian civil organisation 'Nyomtass te is!' (Print it yourself!) prepare leaflets on a train, February 16, 2018. /VCG Photo

The MSZP can expect 14 percent, while the LMP and DK should make it past the five-percent threshold, with seven-percent support each.

Gerrymandering and ethnic Hungarians

Critics say changes to the election system implemented since Fidesz came to power have benefitted the party.

Observers have accused the government of gerrymandering certain districts. Postal ballots – which tend to favor opposition parties – have been abolished, while ethnic Hungarians in countries like Slovakia and Romania – who have shown overwhelming support for Fidesz – have been given the right to vote.

(L to R) Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban attend a Visegrad Group panel discussion in Budapest, Hungary, January 26, 2018. /VCG Photo

As a result, the party reportedly won its two-thirds majority in 2014 with just about 45 percent of votes cast.

Some however hope that a by-election in February, in which an opposition-backed candidate defeated his Fidesz rival, could signal difficulties for Orban and his party on Sunday.

A small majority of those polled also said they would favor a change in government.

"There is anger in the air, and danger for Orban if people turned off by politics in recent years vote en masse," Andras Biro-Nagy, an analyst with Policy Solutions, told AFP news agency.

Some eight million people are eligible to vote on Sunday. Preliminary results are expected in the evening.

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