Mexico Economy: The year in review and outlook for 2019
Updated 21:59, 29-Dec-2018
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Mexico's economy faced headwinds in 2018, with the retooling of its trade agreement with the US and Canada. Which way will Mexico's economic winds blow in 2019? Our reporter Franc Contreras has more.
Mexican voters looked at the political and economic landscape in 2018 and decided they wanted change. They elected left-wing populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to a landslide victory. The newly-installed president, known by his initials AMLO, takes over a lackluster economy which is on pace to grow about two percent in 2018.
It was a year that saw the retooling of the North American Free Trade Agreement, something U.S. President Donald Trump had been itching to do for a long time. That injected uncertainty into Mexico's economy and forced the Mexican peso to weaken against the dollar. It didn't help that as President-elect, AMLO spooked investors by cancelling the construction of a new international airport for Mexico City, a mega project valued at the $13 billion dollars. Weeks after being sworn into office, the AMLO administration has been working to shore up investor confidence. First by sending Congress what many analysts call a prudent budget.
ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR MEXICAN PRESIDENT "It's a responsible budget. We will have sufficient income to finance the cost of the nation without driving it into debt. And without increasing taxes."
Then AMLO's government agreed to buy back airport bonds from shaken investors at a cost of $1.8 billion dollars. With the holidays here, Mexican consumers are feeling the effects of rising annual inflation which is around five percent.
Independent economist Jonathan Heath has been nominated to serve an eight-year term as a voting member of Mexico's Central Bank. He says 2019 could be a good year for Mexican exports - if lawmakers in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico approve the new trade deal.
JONATHAN HEATH INDEPENDENT ECONOMIST "I think that the best case scenario is that the new trade agreement would start maybe mid-2019. But I would say more likely it will be toward the second half of 2019 that the new trade agreement would take effect. So if we assume that the U.S. economy grows more or less the same with the same demand for Mexican exports, with a very favorable exchange rate for exports, I think export growth can maintain its current pace."
But much will depend on which way the economic winds blow for both the U.S. and neighboring Mexico in the uncertain year ahead. FC, CGTN, Mexico City.