As Mexico's next president prepares to take office, tensions remain with the country's northern neighbor. Since his victory, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has been restrained in criticizing Donald Trump. Alasdair Baverstock reports from the US-Mexico border.

A right-wing populist to the north.

A left-wing populist to the south.

A collision course might seem inevitable and nowhere more visibly than at U.S.-Mexico border.

The stakes are high. A renegotiated trade deal, a joint "war on drugs" - which has cost at least 200,000 lives since 2006 - and fresh waves of Central American migrants, ratcheting up social and economic pressures on both sides of the border.

This U.S. immigration lawyer says Mexico can't be expected to enforce U.S. policies.

JAN JOSEPH BEJAR SAN DIEGO-BASED IMMIGRATION ATTORNEY "Mexico is not the United States' stooge, and it's not the employee of the United States and has no obligation or reason to act as its policeman and detain people, so that they cannot make their way to the United States. When Mexico does not impede Central Americans from reaching the U.S. border, that is going to be a thorn in Trump's side."

But, maybe less thorny than it once appeared.

ALASDAIR BAVERSTOCK TIJUANA, MEXICO "Lopez Obrador was tough on Mexico's northern neighbor on the campaign trail. He denounced the Trump administration for its policies towards migrants but has struck a more conciliatory tone since his election win. Speaking by phone and exchanging letters with President Trump, promoting greater cooperation with his counterpart in the White House."

Since his election win in July, Lopez-Obrador - known here by his initials, "AMLO"- met with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The two struck a conciliatory tone.

AMLO later pledged to give Mexicans special incentives to dissuade them from crossing into the U.S.

RODOLFO CRUZMIGRATION ANALYST "He has spoken of finding ways to invest in Central America and parts of Mexico so that people will remain in the places they are from. It's something which is possible. If there is the political and economic will, it can certainly be achieved."

Some demographic realities make cooperation desirable, if not necessary. Some 35 million ethnic Mexicans live in the United States. That's roughly the entire population of Canada.

David Rocha is a political scientist who sees interdependence winning out.

PROFESSOR DAVID ROCHA AUTONOMOUS UNIVERSITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA "I think relations will be tense at first, but that with time things will settle down. Lopez Obrador understands, like all Mexicans, that we can't separate or fight with the United States. And Donald Trump is getting the message, too. Our cultures are entirely mixed, and the politics have to adapt to that."

"Mixed" - and literally inseparable - with a shared border more than three-thousand-kilometers long and nearly 560 billion in bilateral trade last year.

Alasdair Baverstock, CGTN, Tijuana, Mexico.