Ex-Yemeni President Saleh’s death puts spotlight on son Ahmed

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The brutal killing of Yemen’s former president Ali Abdullah Saleh by his erstwhile Houthi allies has pushed the war-torn country into further chaos, violence and uncertainty.

As the Saudi-led coalition intensifies attacks against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, speculation is rife that Riyadh and its allies may be preparing Saleh’s eldest son Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh to take charge in Sanaa in the long run.

Ahmed, a powerful former military chief who once served as Yemen’s ambassador to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has been living in that country for the past five years.

Arab media reported on Tuesday that Ahmed has left for Riyadh and will head to Yemen to lead the military operations against the rebels.

A tweet from journalist Joyce Karam who writes for the Abu Dhabi-based daily, The National.

A tweet from geopolitical and security analyst Michael Horowitz.

According to reports, Ahmed has vowed to avenge the death of his father in a statement on Tuesday in which he blasted Iran and the Houthis for Saleh's killing. There were unconfirmed reports suggesting Ahmed will address the nation at 9.00 pm local time.

A tweet from Dubai-based Al Arabiya news channel reporting the statement, in Arabic, of Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh vowing revenge against the killers of his father.

Saleh was killed on Monday by Houthi fighters – his former allies – just two days after the Yemeni strongman broke the alliance and switched sides, reaching out to the Saudi Arabia that has led the war with his rebel alliance since March 2015.

Houthi militia sources claimed its fighters had stopped Saleh’s armored vehicle with an RPG rocket south of the embattled capital Sanaa and then shot him dead. Saleh’s General People’s Congress (GPC) party, in a statement on its website, mourned its leader.

The Houthi rebels hailed Saleh’s death as a “historic defeat” for the Saudi-led forces even as the Riyadh-backed Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi urged his countrymen to rise against the rebels, whom he described as “Iranian militias”.

Ahmed Saleh: A 'trump card' for UAE?

A file photo of Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh. /Reuters Photo

The recent developments have squarely put the spotlight on Saleh’s eldest son Ahmed, who is believed to have played a critical role in negotiating with the Saudi-led coalition on behalf of his father.

Political observers feel that after Saleh’s death Ahmed may be backed by Saudi Arabia and its ally, the UAE, to take charge of Yemen in the eventuality of a coalition win.

“The UAE has been keeping hold of Ahmed should anything happen to his father. In that event, they plan to immediately dispatch him to Yemen to take over his [Saleh’s] role,” Murad Alazzany, a Yemeni political analyst and professor at Sanaa University, told Al Jazeera.

The speculations gained currency following a report by Paris-based news and diplomacy publication Intelligence Online which claimed that at the behest of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Ahmed al-Asiri, the former military spokesman of the Saudi-led coalition, held talks with Ahmed Ali Saleh in Abu Dhabi this June, where they discussed the possibility of forming a new government in Yemen.

A Houthi militant reacts as he sits on a tank after the death of Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sanaa, Yemen, on December 4, 2017. /Reuters Photo

“The UAE and Saudi Arabia have lost a lot of men in this war [in Yemen] and it seems that with the UAE’s help, Saleh, or one of his sons, could end it,” a Yemeni official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Qatar-based news network Al Jazeera just ahead of Saleh’s death. He suggested that Saleh’s switching side was a ploy to completely sideline the Houthis, paving the way either for the former president or his son, Ahmed, to be “the next man to rule Yemen.”

The Intelligence Online report said that Mohammed bin Salman was lobbied by the UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, to ditch Hadi in favour of Saleh. It added that Mohammed bin Salman had warmed to the idea of “a return to power of the former Yemeni president [or his son].”

“Mohammed bin Salman has been influenced by the UAE and thinks switching from Hadi to Saleh will help end the war,” the Yemeni official conceded.

Emphasizing that Saleh’s son was a “trump card” for the UAE, Alazzany said: “The UAE has always had plans for him. He’s a tool, just like how former Afghan President Hamid Karzai was used by the US. When the time is right, they’ll use him to do whatever they want.”

All eyes on Saleh's family, allies

Women supporters of Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh hold up Saleh's posters during a rally marking his 70th birthday anniversary in Sanaa on March 23, 2012. /Reuters Photo

Saleh ruled Yemen with an iron fist for 33 years, establishing an intricate grid of links between the country’s military, civil and tribal groups.

Even after relinquishing his presidency in favor of his long-time deputy, Hadi, in 2012 following a Gulf and US-brokered deal, Saleh continued to wield power over several units of the military and remained at the helm of his party, the General People’s Congress (GPC).

Many believe Ahmed, whom the former Yemeni president appeared to be grooming to succeed him, may by his family’s last chance to win back influence. Between 1999 and 2012, Ahmed was a powerful commander of 80,000 troops of the Republican Guard unit of the Yemen Army.

While all eyes are on Saleh’s political and military allies as well as his son, some observers believe that with the death of the Yemeni strongman, the Saudi-UAE plan of reinstalling the veteran leader or one of his close aides to power has virtually failed.

Saying that it was not clear what Saleh’s family and political allies would do next, Adam Baron, a Yemen expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Reuters: “His people will be angry, and many will certainly be out for blood, but there are many in the middle, especially among the tribes, who will fall in with whoever appears stronger.”

“The (Saudi-led) coalition may have put a lot of their eggs in Saleh’s basket, only for it to fall over now. They appeared to strongly support his attempt to confront the Houthis, and now that bid may have failed,” Baron concluded.

Hadi: Unite against 'Iranian militias'

Meanwhile, President Hadi, who remains under self-imposed exile in Riyadh, urged Yemenis to unite against the Houthi rebels, describing them as “Iranian militias”.

The Yemeni President also urged his countrymen under Houthi rule across the country to “rise up” against the “criminal and terrorist militias”

Hadi succeeded Saleh in 2012 after his predecessor was ousted by the popular Arab Spring protests that gripped the country in early 2011.

Saleh’s forces and Houthis joined ranks in 2014 against Hadi’s government, forcing him to seek military intervention by his Gulf neighbors.

When the Saleh-Houthi alliance began to unravel, Hadi offered the opportunity of a fresh start in relations with Saleh, days before his death. He offered condolences for the death of Saleh, describing him and others who were killed in the past days of clashes as “martyrs.”

Moral boost for the Houthis

Saleh’s death is being seen as a huge moral boost for the Houthis, whose supporters drove through Sanaa’s streets blasting celebratory war songs on Monday.

Houthi leader Abdul-Malek al-Houthi, in a lengthy speech aired on the Houthis’ TV network al-Masirah, described Saleh’s killing as a “historic defeat to the forces of the aggression,” referring to the Saudi-led alliance of Arab states fighting them.

Without mentioning Saleh by name, he said that he knew about Saleh’s communication with the coalition and his efforts to turn against the Houthis. He added that he had sent several warnings to Saleh.

Abdul-Malek stressed that the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, have no enmity toward the GPC, which was Yemen’s ruling party under Saleh but is now divided. He said the Houthis, who follow the Zaidi branch of Shia Islam, would maintain Yemen’s republican system and not pursue a vendetta against Saleh’s party.

(With input from agencies)

[Top photo: Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh (left) with his eldest son Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh. /Reuters Photo]

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