Reporter's Diary: World Cup draw in bookmakers' eyes
By Richard Bestic
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Following the FIFA World Cup Draw in Moscow, our correspondent in London has been seeking reaction from bookmakers in the UK capital – the people who have a lot of cash to lose if the results turn against them. He visited the headquarters of the UK’s biggest bookies, Ladbrokes, to find out who has the low and high odds.
With Italy out of the way, it's possibly no surprise that the favorites remain current champions Germany, along with France and Brazil. They all tip the scales at 5/1. Not bad odds at all.
But here’s the thing, if you bet on all three – you can still double your money, even though you'll have lost your cash on two losing bets.
Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said, "It's a good chance to double your money with bets on the runaway favorites to win the competition."
But this is a competition among 32 of the world's best teams and the dynamics and permutations of the World Cup mean there are no certainties. It's wide open for upsets on the day.
Take Iceland, for example, the smallest nation to contest the World Cup. Ladbrokes would give you an eye watering 250/1 on an Icelandic victory. The odds say it all: they're not expected to progress too far.
But then this is the same team which knocked England out of the Euros in 2016. Could this tiny nation of just 350,000 have another surprise in store. Promising to pay out $250 dollars on every dollar wagered, Ladbrokes and its team of 900 traders in the company’s East London headquarters clearly believe not.
And anyway, the plucky Vikings will need to get around Argentina; Croatia and Nigeria first – no easy task. Possibly best to keep your money in your back pocket for that wildcard bet.
And what about England? The odds from Ladbrokes at 11/1 clearly suggest the English national side’s disappointing performances going back several years keeps them out of the prospective winner's enclosure. But then … take a look at their group:
Yes, the Belgians are favorites to top the group, which also includes Iran and Panama. But there’s a little worry for the traders at Ladbrokes. Should England surprise the world – and frankly it would be a surprise – if they were to go on to win the World Cup for the first time since their victory over Germany in 1966, well that would be the result that would hurt Ladbrokes hardest.
The unquestioning loyalty of English fans putting their money on national pride would see an England victory lose the bookmaker the greatest amount of cash. So, while the mainly English team of Ladbrokes traders may be shouting "Come on England" with their hearts, they know the company coffers will be saying "don’t go there."
Some might say it's a little like Brexit – it’s doesn’t entirely make financial sense, but for many that’s not the point.
If an England victory seems a remote possibility, spare a thought for Saudi Arabia; Tunisia and Panama, all of whom are being touted by some as 500/1 shots. For those teams, though, it really is the taking part and not the winning that counts.
Around the world Ladbrokes is estimating 300 million US dollars will be wagered on the World Cup at their betting shops. With that kind of cash on the table, you can bet the traders will be maintaining an "eagle eye" on every injury and every movement in the money right up until kick off at the first match in June. It may well be the "beautiful game," but clearly there’s a lot more riding on it than just the pride of 32 nations.