Lula falls, Barbosa rises ahead of Brazilian election

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Support for jailed former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is dropping as his chances of running in the October presidential election fade, a Datafolha poll showed on Sunday.

Without Lula in the running, support for far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro has slipped and is now virtually tied with environmentalist Marina Silva in a presidential race thrown wide open, the survey said.

The wild card in the election now appears to be former Chief Justice Joaquim Barbosa, a popular figure due to his anti-corruption record who has jumped into third place in his first showing since he joined a party eyeing a presidential bid.

Joaquim Barbosa, former minister of the supreme court of Brazil and current presidential candidate, in Brasilia, Brazil, June 8, 2017. /VCG Photo

The first poll since Lula started serving a 12-year prison sentence last week for taking bribes showed he would still lead the race with 31 percent, down from 37 percent in the previous Datafolha survey in January.

Bolsonaro, a former army captain who was charged with racism on Friday for inciting hatred with racist statements and could face up to three years in prison, has 17 percent of voter support, down from a peak of 21 percent in November.

Barbosa, the first black member of Brazil's Supreme Court who handled a vote-buying trial that led to the jailing of several of Lula's closest aides in 2012, has between 9 to 10 percent voter support, Datafolha found.

Federal deputy Jair Bolsonaro, a candidate for Brazil's presidential elections, speaks during an affiliation ceremony as he joins the Liberal Social Party in Brasilia, Brazil, March 7, 2018. /VCG Photo‍

Ciro Gomes, the leftist former governor of Ceara state who was expected to draw Lula voters, slipped to nine percent from 12 percent in January, and Lula's likely replacement as candidate for his Workers Party, former Sao Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad has just 2 percent, the poll said.

Other leftist candidates close to Lula, Guilherme Boulos of the Socialism and Liberty Party and Manuela D'Avila of the Communist Party of Brazil have not gained ground at all, with one and two percent respectively.

Lula is unlikely to be a candidate because Brazilian laws bar anyone convicted of a crime from being eligible for elected office for eight years. His party's plan to register his candidacy anyway is expected to be rejected by the top electoral court.

Former senator and current presidential candidate Marina Silva speaks during the Veja Political Summit in Sao Paulo, Brazil, November 27, 2017. /VCG Photo

While Brazilians are split on whether Lula should be allowed to run, 62 percent believe he will be barred, the poll said.

Support for the strongest candidate among Brazil's major centrist parties, former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, is stagnant at between seven and eight percent, while the ruling Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) party's hopefuls fare even worse.

President Michel Temer, who has said he wants to run in October, has between 1-2 percent, while former finance minister Henrique Meirelles has not cleared one percent. Both are affiliated with the MDB.

Datafolha surveyed 4,194 adults across Brazil between April 11-13. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points.

Source(s): Reuters