Expert: Kim launching another missile always possible

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Editor's Note: December 17 is the sixth anniversary of the death of the late leader Kim Jong Il of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Some analysts were concerned that Kim Jong Un, the late Kim Jong Il’s son, might launch another missile to mark the anniversary of his father's death. “It is always possible,” said Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor in Korean studies of Kim Koo-Korea Foundation in an exclusive interview by CGTN.

According to Lee, the DPRK usually tends to coincide their tests on major DPRK holidays or other big events like the Chinese Lunar New Year or the Fourth of July.

To show power muscle to the US

This year has really been a banner year for the DPRK in terms of powerful unprecedented nuclear tests, said Lee. In his opinion, the DPRK has a compelling need to escalate their tests by conducting a missile launch probably in outer space to prove their capability and convince the US that it really need to negotiate with them.

The test-firing of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile on November 29, 2017. Photo provided by Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on November 30, 2017. /Xinhua Photo

“DPRK will show the credibly to the US and the world that it can nuke any major city in the US,” said Lee, "and that changes the dynamic and the balance of the power in the region.”

An inevitable self-defense measure for DPRK?

At the UN Security Council, this week Ambassador for the DPRK Ja Song Nam made a rare appearance, and it is said that Pyongyang nuclear arsenal is "an inevitable self-defense measure," especially against the US.

DPRK's Ambassador to the United Nations Ja Song Nam listens to remarks delivered during a UN Security Council meeting at UN headquarters in New York, US, on December 15, 2017. /Reuters Photo

According to Lee, that statement could also mean that the sheer existence of South Korea is viewed as an existential threat to the DPRK regime.

The DPRK also wants the US troops to get out of the South and to downgrade their support to South Korea.

“This is remarkably a year of success for the DPRK and an ominous year for South Korea, the US and Japan,” he added.

Will DPRK give up the button?

An "about turn" happened this week for US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson when he proposed talks with the DPRK without preconditions. But then backed off those comments after the White House rebutted the proposal.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson delivers remarks on the US-DPRK relationship during a forum at the Atlantic Council in Washington on December 12, 2017. /AFP Photo

What will it take for both sides to come to the table? According to Lee, the key question is what are we talking about? What are the two sides going to talk about? In his mind, the DPRK thinks denuclearization is a false dream; it is not going to happen. The truth is nuclear weapons will have a lasting presence in the state until a change of the regime.

According to Lee, the DPRK will probably talk about disarmament, the peace treaty and the withdrawal of the US troops in the South. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump will lay out a new national security strategy on Monday and the DPRK will keep a close eye on it.