Can China’s two-child policy save its aging population?

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At 1.37 billion it might have the world's largest number of people, but there are concerns that China isn’t having enough babies to redress the balance of a rapidly-aging population.

In 1989, the United Nations General Assembly declared July 11 World Population Day, seeking to focus attention on the urgency and importance of population issues.

The theme this year is “Family Planning: Empowering People, Developing Nations”.

With more people exiting the workforce than entering it, these demographics could drag down economic growth, increase government spending on healthcare and pensions and place a burden on young people as they support a disproportionately aging group.

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According to China’s top health authority, there were 17.86 million births in 2016, an increase of 7.9 percent on the previous year and the highest number seen this century.

Around 45% of those babies were born to families that already had one child, according to Yang Wenzhuang, from the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

In 2016, China allowed all married couples to have two children.

It followed a relaxation in 2013 of the one-child policy - originally introduced in 1979 to curb the country's surging population - which saw couples permitted to have a second child if either parent was an only child.

But despite the increase, the fertility rate remains below replacement level – the point at which a population replenishes itself from one generation to the next, according to the National Development Plan 2016-2030 issued by the State Council.

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In 2015, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, those aged 65 and over accounted for 10.7 percent of China’s population – a number worth fretting over considering the UNESCO standard is seven percent.

And that number is set to rise as the effects of the decades-long one-child policy start to show.

“The two-child policy plays little role in relieving the fast-aging population. The second child takes up a very small proportion of the total population,” Professor Tan Kejian, who is with the population research center at the Shanxi Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, told CGTN. “Changing the population structure is a decades-long process.”

A 2015 survey by the National Health and Family Planning Commission found nearly 75 percent of respondents were reluctant to have a second baby, largely due to economic burdens, age and a lack of caregivers.

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Family support is still an important factor in raising children.

“I am very lucky to have a mother who is able to look after my child during the day,” said 32-year-old Xiao Le, a vocational educator. “Realistically speaking, it is difficult for the government to directly support each family.”

But the country recognizes these pressures, as it considers income tax deductions for families with two children.

Certain expenditures of two-child families, for example education payments, are among the considerations that may be deducted, according to finance minister Xiao Jie at a press conference on the sidelines of the country’s annual parliamentary session in March.

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“When it comes to planning [for a child], many will do their sums and place a monetary figure on it,” said Xiao, who doesn’t mind having a second child. “But it’s really not that bad when it comes down to it. It all depends on how you want to raise your child and how you allocate your expenses.”

In June, vice premier Liu Yandong said it was necessary to strengthen maternal and child health services, as well as expand nurseries, kindergartens and other public resources.

But specific policies should be tailored, as different regions have different needs.

“A community should not exist in name only,” said Xiao. “Grassroots committees should do serious studies on the families in their region in order to understand its needs and give it the appropriate assistance.”