Egypt Real Estate Slowdown: Analysts warn recession could hit sector hard
Updated 10:32, 06-Oct-2018
[]
03:37
There is a growing debate in Egypt over the country's real estate market. Many analysts are warning of a recession that could hit the sector hard in months to come. CGTN's Yasser Hakim explains why.
The real estate market is one of the few booming sectors that have survived the political instability after the 2011 uprising.
HUSSEIN SABBOUR, FOUNDER AL AHLY REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT "The sector grows at 16% every year it's the biggest sector in the economy. People were buying for two reasons, either they need the unit or they put their savings in houses. The increase in house prices is more than interest in banks. So rich people would buy houses instead of putting money in the bank."
Prices were increasing rapidly year on year and demand remained high. Developers were expanding their business at a fast rate.
YASSER HAKIM CAIRO "But for most experts, the turning point came after the devaluation of the Egyptian pound in 2016. Prices of all products in Egypt, including housing units, have more than doubled. And this was a cause for concern."
The economic recession and austerity measures pushed down the purchasing power of Egyptians. People are not able to buy as many units as before. Experts are ringing the alarm bells.
ABLA ABDEL LATIF, DIRECTOR EGYPTIAN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC STUDIES "The problems began in the resale segment which slowed down. If you own a unit, you can't sell it, so you are losing your savings. Naturally, people will not invest in units like before and this will create a bubble in real estate."
But developers such as Hussein Sabbour, a real estate magnate, insist there's no crisis on the horizon.
HUSSEIN SABBOUR, FOUNDER AL AHLY REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT "We are a population of 100 million people. Our marriages are 500 thousand every year, that means we need every year 500 thousand units. Plus old houses built nearly 100 years are starting to decay and needs to be replaced. Based on that there's great demand which makes it very promising. There will be no bubble, because there is great need."
In spite of their differences, both sides agree on the need for the government to intervene.
HISHAM SHOKRY, CHAIRPERSON ROOYA REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT GROUP "The government is monopolising all land in the country and sells at very high prices which raises cost of units. The state should relax prices and go into some form partnerships with the private sector."
ABLA ABDEL LATIF, DIRECTOR EGYPTIAN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC STUDIES "The state should re-organise the sector, should facilitate loans for housing units and encourage developers to build good quality, cheaper houses for the majority low-income people who constitute the highest demand."
Whether real estate is entering a bubble or not is debatable. Experts though confirm there are worrying signs and action should be taken before it damages the whole Economy. Yasser Hakim, CGTN, Cairo.