Kurdish referendum: Things you need to know

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Iraqi Kurds are expected to vote "Yes" to independence on Monday, despite growing global condemnation of the referendum and fears of clashes.

The non-binding vote is not likely to result in any formal declaration of independence, and it remains unclear how the negotiations between Kurds and the Iraqi government will progress. CGTN gives you the background information you need to know about Monday's referendum.

Who and where are the Kurds?

An estimated 30 million Kurds inhabit territory straddling the borders of northern Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria. Although the Kurds are the fourth-biggest ethnic group in the region after Arabs, Persians and Turks, they don't have a country of their own.

The most autonomy Kurds have had is in Iraq. /CGTN Photo

The Kurds are united through race, culture and language, even though they speak different dialects of the Kurdish language and don’t follow the same religions and creeds.

Until the early 20th century, there was a rising sense of Kurdish ethnic identity among the group to demand the creation of a homeland. After World War I, provision was made for a Kurdish state by victorious Western allies in the 1920 Treaty of Sevres.

However, the treaty was not fully implemented when the Treaty of Lausanne was issued in 1923, which set the boundaries of modern Turkey without mentioning of a Kurdish state. The Kurds were left with minority status in their respective countries.

Rising appeals for independence

When World War II ended, the Soviet Union backed the Kurdish to found a state called the Republic of Mahabad. However, this self-governing state lasted less than one year.

A coalition Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was created in 2005, two years after former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was toppled. The KRG administered three provinces – Dohuk, Erbil and Sulaimaniya – in northern Iraq. It is the highest level of autonomy the Kurds have had so far.

Currently, around six million Kurds live in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which accounts for 20 percent of the Iraqi population.

They control the land borders with neighboring countries, elect their own parliament, maintain their own security forces (known as the Peshmerga) and draft their own laws.

When ISIL attacked three years ago, Iraqi forces put up a poor fight and then fled. The Kurdish fighters rushed on to push back the terrorist group and took control some parts of northern Iraq's oil fields, including in disputed Kirkuk area.

Why do they insist independence?

In the past decade, Kurds’ attempts to found an independent state have repeatedly failed, but they never give up because of political and economic interests.

Former US President George W. Bush meets with the President of the Iraqi Regional Government of Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani, in the Oval Office of the White House in 2005. /Reuters Photo

From 1986 to 1988, Iraqi government forces destroyed thousands of Kurdish villages, leaving over 100,000 Kurds dead. Although Saddam Hussein is gone, Iraqi Kurds still feel unsafe and thought themselves victims of a geopolitical game in the region.

Once an independent Kurdish state is established, a dramatic change to the current geopolitical situation could well be expected.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces celebrate Newroz Day, a festival marking spring and the new year, in Kirkuk on March 20, 2017. /Reuters Photo

The Iraqi Kurds have their own economic concerns. They want to control their own economy and accuse Baghdad of reneging on an agreement to give them a share of oil revenues. Baghdad accuses the Kurdistan region of illegally exporting oil. That has resulted in an economic crisis in the Kurdish region.

Timing of the referendum

The Iraqi parliament has strongly opposed the vote, and the Supreme Court called for a suspension of the referendum a week ahead of voting day.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has reiterated his objections and called for national unity, saying the referendum is "unconstitutional."

Some argue the demand for the referendum by the Iraqi Kurds is strategically timed – right before ISIL was cleared from the region, a bargaining chip that Kurds used to leverage with world powers since the Kurdish Peshmerga has played an important part in battling against ISIL as part of the US-led coalition.

An old Kurdish man walks in the old city of Erbil, Iraq on September 20, 2017. /Reuters Photo

The Kurdish fighting forces have largely defended their own territory while rooting out ISIL, while also taking control of some disputed areas, for example, swathes of Nineveh plain east of Mosul and the oil-rich province of Kirkuk.

According to Barzarni, Kurds would consider delaying the referendum if a specific date for independence is agreed with the Iraqi government and other relevant countries. "They haven’t suggested anything, so we will go ahead," Barzarni said.

Fears of local and regional clashes

There has been stiff opposition to the referendum not only from the Iraqi government, but also in neighboring countries – Turkey, Iran and Syria, as well as major Western powers.

The neighbors fear it could stir demands of self-rule among their own ethnic Kurdish populations, while the UN and the US warn the referendum would hinder the battle with the ISIL, saying it would have a "destabilizing impact."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned of sanctions over the Kurds' independence bid. /Reuters Photo

Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani told the BBC in an interview that all the talk of breaking unity or undermining the battle against ISIL is but excuses by those opposed to independence.

He said the referendum would have no effect on the war against the ISIL, questioning: "When have we ever had stability and security that we should be concerned about losing it?"

In a statement released by Turkey’s foreign ministry, Turkey, Iran and Iraq reiterated their fears over the potential for new conflicts in the region, and agreed to consider counter-measures against Kurdish northern Iraq.

Given the complex ethnic make-up – Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, Christian and other minorities all residing within the region – there is a fear that the Kurdish independence referendum will lead to local clashes, which could in turn become regional.

Edmund Ghareeb, an expert on issues in the Middle East, told CGTN that countries like Turkey, Iran, and Syria see the vote as a threat to their territorial integrity as well.

The referendum is set to trigger negotiations between the KRG and the Iraqi central government, but not an immediate establishment of a new state. It remains unclear how such a negotiation would be completed, given the stark differences between the sides.