Will it be victory for the Czech 'answer to Donald Trump'?

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Europe

‍The Czech Republic goes to the polls on Friday and Saturday. The man who looks to be the clear favorite and has created the maximum buzz during the election campaign is the leader of the populist movement ANO – billionaire Andrej Babis dubbed as the “Czech Trump” or even the “Czech Berlusconi.”

It appears that the polarizing billionaire's anti-establishment rhetoric has convinced voters that he can fix the country's problems as most reports are predicting an outright victory for his political party Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, known by its Czech acronym ANO, meaning “yes.”

In a recent poll by the Czech Academy of Sciences, the ANO scored 30.9 percent, significantly more than the two traditional heavyweights in Czech politics – the Social Democrat CSSD and the right-wing ODS – combined, who scored just 13.1 percent and 9.1 percent respectively.

Members of the Czech Social Democratic Party and their election leader Lubomir Zaoralek march during an election rally in Prague, Czech Republic, on October 15, 2017. The placards read: "Vote for a safe country" and "CSSD for higher wages." /Reuters Photo

A newcomer to the Czech political scene, ANO finished second in the 2013 election with 18.65 percent votes, tailing the Social Democrats with 20.45 percent.

Babis’ populist party held key posts in the present center-left government under Social Democrat Bohuslav Sobotka. The ANO chieftain himself occupied the post of finance minister between January 2014 and May this year.

Anti-system parties vying for seats in the 200-member parliament this time round include the Communists, who scored 11.1 percent in the Academy poll.

The Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) of Tokyo-born entrepreneur Tomio Okamura, betting on strong anti-migrant rhetoric and plans to leave the EU, mustered 7.3-percent support.

Babis: The 'Czech Trump'

The leader of ANO party Andrej Babis arrives at an election campaign rally in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 28, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Dubbed by the media variously as the "Czech Trump" or the "Czech Berlusconi," Babis has publicly vowed to drain the swamp of Prague’s politics, run his country like a business and keep out Muslim immigrants, drawing comparisons with the US President Donald Trump.

Ranked by Forbes as the Czech Republic's second wealthiest citizen, the Slovak-born tycoon is the founder of the sprawling Agrofert conglomerate and was also its CEO until January 2014 when he became finance minister.

He had to relinquish full ownership of the firm due to a new legislation on conflict of interest in 2017 when he was forced to transfer the title of company to trust funds controlled by his family and co-workers. Babis commands a personal net worth of about $4.04 billion according to Bloomberg.

Babis was still a political novice in 2012 when he launched ANO but soon rose to political prominence. The ANO leader appears to have ridden high on "strong voter aversion to political parties tarnished by corruption scandals," AFP quoted Charles University analyst, Josef Mlejnek, as saying. "He offers the voters a populist alternative by presenting himself as someone capable of managing the state because he has already successfully managed his conglomerate," Mlejnek added.

During a recent debate in Prague, French political analyst Jacques Rupnik drew parallels in Babis’ political rise to that of Trump in the US. "Entrepreneurial populism is a problem... we already have an entrepreneur in the White House," he said.

Babis and the US president are so alike in profile and their views that the Czech leader felt compelled to cite this key distinction. “I was never bankrupt,” the 63-year-old he said in an interview to The Washington Post.

“There are other differences, too. But the overall picture is clear: Europe, a land where President Trump is widely reviled, could soon have a man who bears an uncanny resemblance leading a nation at the continent’s heart,” the Post said in a report.

Stoking fear of migrants

Protesters hold banners and Czech national flags during an anti-migrants rally in Prague on September 12, 2015. /AFP Photo

Babis has called for the EU to shut its borders to stop immigration and is opposed to the adoption of the euro – exactly what the voters in a country where euroskepticism is still strong would like to hear. Czech Republic joined the European Union in 2004,

“He’s operating with fear. Promoting danger – the EU and migrants,” Ivan Gabal, an independent member of parliament aligned with the center-right Christian Democrats, told The Washington Post. “That’s the whole strategy.”

Unlike elsewhere in the EU, migration has become a key campaign issue in the Czech Republic despite the marked absence of migrants and refugees.

A staged election clip, produced by the far-right Bloc Against Islamization (BAI), shows migrants wearing burkas and hijabs attack a Czech pensioner, kick over her walker and dash into a building with a sign saying "welfare benefits," leaving her lying helpless on the pavement. It then tells Czech voters "you can choose whether to give money to our children and seniors or to Muslims and Africans."

The BAI is just one of 31 parties running in the Czech general election, many of which have stoked concerns about the record influx of migrants into Europe.

"This has little to do with a real problem, because there is really no migration here," Jiri Pehe, an independent political analyst, told AFP. "Parties have merely found out that the migration, terrorism, Islam threats work so they are using them," he said.

In an April poll by the CVVM institute, a part of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 60 percent of Czechs said their country should not accept migrants at all, while only three percent would let them stay for good.

A demonstrator holds a placard with photos of President Milos Zeman (right) and the leader of ANO Party Andrej Babis (left) during a protest rally demanding their resignation, in front of Prague Castle in Prague, Czech Republic, on October 17, 2017. The placard reads: "Gentlemen we finish." /Reuters Photo

Anti-migrant sentiment is also fueled by outspoken President Milos Zeman, who has called the migrant wave "an organised invasion" and said Muslims were "impossible to integrate." Zeman, a staunch Babis supporter, will run for his second five-year term in the second-ever direct presidential election in the country, just three months after the general election.

Prague has protested strongly against the EU-wide refugee quota scheme, alongside ex-Communist peers Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The EU country of 10.6 million people has accepted just 12 of the 1,600 refugees it was asked to take in over the last two years under the bloc's quota scheme.

"There are almost no migrants here, the country is doing well economically, and still the people are disillusioned or even angry," Charles University’s Mlejnek said.

Heavily dependent on car production and exports to the eurozone, the Czech economy has fared well in recent years, reported AFP. Unemployment stood at just 3.8 percent in September and economic growth is expected to pick up to 3.1 percent this year after 2.6 percent in 2016, according to the finance ministry.

ANO leader's post-poll worries

So far, Babis' popularity has remained unscathed by various scandals, including recent fraud charges over EU subsidies received by one of his companies.

Nevertheless, that affair "might turn out dangerous for him during post-election negotiations," Mlejnek told AFP. "ANO may win the election and end up in a government without Babis," he said.

Analysts however feel that even if Babis’ party emerges as the winner, the ANO leader will need to find coalition partners. He will also have to contend with multiple probes into his business practices. Moreover, he will need to have a working relation with Europe.

In all likelihood, Babis will have to do a course-correction on many of his campaign rhetoric and promises, exactly the way Trump had to, once he is hit by the reality of governance.

(With input from agencies)

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