02:15
The tit-for-tat trade dispute between the U.S. and China is generating a mix of fear and hope across Southeast Asia, which exports large volumes to both countries. Our correspondent Miro Lu in Singapore spoke to two political risk analysts to find out how the region may be affected.
Hans Vriens is Managing Partner of Vriens & Partners, a Singapore-headquartered corporate advisory firm specializing in government affairs, public policy and political risk analysis in Southeast Asia. He says the trade disputes between the U.S. and China is bad news for the region.
HANS VRIENS MANAGING PARTNER, VRIENS & PARTNERS "Because many products being made in Southeast Asia are part of a global or regional supply chain. They are made here, go to China, like the iPhone and many other products, and then go to the U.S. So Southeast Asia will suffer as a result."
But there is a flip side in the long term he says. The tariff battle could enhance the region's appeal as an alternative destination for investment and sales.
HANS VRIENS MANAGING PARTNER, VRIENS & PARTNERS "That already move factories, moving from China to Southeast Asia, simply because of lower wages, in Vietnam, in Indonesia and Malaysia, and that trend is likely to speed up as the result of the threats by President Trump."
In a recent ASEAN finance ministers' meeting that Singapore hosted, Singapore Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat said the 10-member ASEAN bloc was estimated to have grown by an impressive 5.1 percent in 2017 and is expected to outpace most other regions this year. Some expert says the threat of a trade war we are seeing is not going to be the last. What ASEAN needs do is to speed up is its own economic integration, and trade more among themselves.
MIRO LU SINGAPORE "Some economists put projection at a dip of 3 to 4 percentage points of world GDP over the next few years. The consensus is that everybody will be hurt if there is a trade war, but at this point, the specific damage on Southeast Asia is anyone's guess. Miro Lu, CGTN, Singapore."