Middle East crisis may have economic impact on Lebanon

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‍By CGTN's Asia Today

“Lebanon is a small country. If Saudi Arabia starts these sanctions, life would be worse for the Lebanese people,” said Li Guofu, a senior researcher on Middle East issues at the China Institute of International Studies.

“There are almost half a million Lebanese working in the Gulf States and each year they are sending 7 to 8 billion dollars back home. It’s significant for the Lebanese economy. “

Li was speaking today about the ongoing political crisis in the Middle East. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his shock resignation in Saudi Arabia two weeks ago.

He caused a political crisis and stunned many at home with the announcement in Riyadh.

Li Guofu, a senior researcher on Middle East issues at the China Institute of International Studies. /CGTN Screenshot

Hariri arrived back in Lebanon Wednesday and while he denied speculation that Saudi Arabia had forced him to depart, his announcement plunged his country into the middle of Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry.

Speaking about the developing crisis, Li said many issues now depend on whether Hariri stands by his resignation.

Li also fears that if the unity government breaks down, which the Iran-backed group Hezbollah is also part of, it might provide Saudi Arabia with the opportunity to impose Qatar-style sanctions on Lebanon.

But Li’s principal worry is the effect all this will have on Lebanon’s economy, saying that sanctions will ban the flow of remittances and also mean the suspension of economic assistance from Saudia Arabia.

“What Saudi Arabia wants is to let the Lebanese people blame Hezbollah for the difficulties or whatever happens to the country,” he said.

Li speculates that Hariri may seek help from Egypt to negotiate with Saudi Arabia and reverse the crisis after stopping in the country on his way back to Lebanon.

“He’s a prime minister of a country. He has a reputation to keep and he knows what’s good for his country,” Li said.

“But let’s keep in mind the personal connection that Hariri has with Riyadh. Perhaps that’s what makes it difficult for Hariri to make his decision once he returns home.”

Asia Today is a 30-minute news and current affairs show on CGTN with a focus on issues in the Asia-Pacific region. It airs daily at 7.00 p.m. BJT (1100GMT) with no rebroadcast.

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