US Sanctions: Iran market influenced but not severely as expected
Updated 17:20, 09-Nov-2018
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The US has introduced a raft of sanctions on Iran targeting banking, energy and shipping sectors. But it's the impact of the sanctions on the global oil supply that has been talked about for months. Waivers for some importers might soften the blow as Jacob Greaves reports from Dubai.
Oil is at the heart of new US sanctions on Iran. But as they came into force, its price initially dipped. Just a short time ago, some said cutting off Iranian supplies could spike global prices. But after months of warnings from US President Donald Trumps administration, producers and importers have had plenty of time to prepare.
ROBIN MILLS, CEO QAMAR ENERGY "The prospect of $100 a barrel for oil has receded a lot, assuming there's no great shocks in the last two months of the year, partly because we've seen demand slowing down and that's no surprise. Oil prices have been relatively high, it's inevitably going to have an impact on demand. Global economic growth has decelerated a bit and the impact of these Iran sanctions so far has not been as dramatic as we might have thought. It certainly could bite as we go into 2019, we have seen other OPEC countries Saudi Arabia and also non-OPEC country Russia, putting a lot of oil on the market and trying to cool down a price spike before it actually happened."
Ahead of imposing fresh sanctions, the U.S. surprised some onlookers. Agreeing to offer those acutely exposed to the sanctions a temporary lifeline. China's one of the 8 major buyers granted an exemption, along with India and Japan.
JACOB GREAVES DUBAI "This is a situation being watched closely here in the United Arab Emirates, in recent years a top buyer of Iranian oil. The announcement of waivers for some big importers shows a somewhat softened stance from the US administration and has helped to allay some fears of a supply shortage."
The question is for how long. The waivers are supposed to be a temporary measure. On paper at least zero imports is still the US administration's enforcement target. But there also the issue of whether Iran could find a way around U.S. sanctions. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has vowed to break them.
MATT STANLEY, SENIOR BROKER STAR FUELS "The interesting part that I would say regarding the government to government part is how much is the world relying on the dollar now? The Chinese came out with their new Shanghai Exchange which is a crude oil barrel. That's priced in local currency is that the conduit that Iran need so that they can start producing as much as they were and the Chinese will be the sole buyer because they haven't got to go through the US system. So I think this trade war dispute between the US and China, I think it's all linked."
Oil prices have already sunk more than 15 percent since the 4-year highs in early October. The fact China, Russia and European powers are looking at ways to still do business with Tehran, could further soften the impact on global markets. JG, CGTN, DUBAI.