On November 5, US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Japan, the first leg of his trip to Asia. 

Generally speaking, Trump has three purposes in mind for the Japan visit: Reassuring Japan, negotiating on trade and intensifying solidarity on the nuclear issue of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). As the White House’s statement goes, Trump’s travel will underscore his commitment to longstanding US alliances and partnerships, and reaffirm US leadership in promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific region.

In the first place, this visit can help US and Japan build a façade of strong alliance. Both parties have painstakingly arranged the agendas of this visit. Japan has scheduled a meeting between Trump and the Emperor Akihito while Prime Minister Shinzo Abe himself would play golf with Trump. Trump will also meet with the relatives of the Japanese kidnapped by the DPRK. Both US and Japan strive to demonstrate that their leaders maintain good personal relationships and their diplomatic ties are solid. With regard to Japan, Trump’s visit is a sort of consolation proving that US takes Japan seriously. In the meanwhile, Japan also needs to intensify cooperation with US on trade, the DPRK nuclear issue and so on. 

Secondly, speaking of trade the two countries still need to strive for more cooperation while lessening their existing contradictions, especially on trade of automobiles and agricultural products. Since Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Abe’s vision of affirming Japan’s leadership in the new regional economic order has been stranded and Japan’s diplomacy has been dealt a harsh blow. Furthermore, under Trump’s “US First” policy, US-Japan trade is regarded as a significant factor leading to US’s trade imbalance. The two countries are in urgent need to settle the impending trade issue through exchanges between top leaders. According to the Kyodo News, they are expected to reach consensus on the development of next-generation mobile communications system and the enhancement of cooperation on other cutting-edge technologies. Japan was also confirmed to provide assistance to US on the latter’s upgrading of infrastructure, for example high-speed railway. 

On the Japanese side, the Abe government attempts to advance “Abenomics” with a US-Japan-led fourth industrial revolution while mitigating US’s criticism on bilateral trade through the strengthening of economic cooperation. 

Thirdly, the two countries are expected to promote solidarity on the DPRK nuclear issue and ratchet up pressure on the DPRK. The nuclear issue has always been a diplomatic priority for Japan and the Abe government’s hardline policy has escalated tensions on the Korean Peninsula for several times. A new approach is required as the DPRK nuclear issue has reached an impasse. Regarding the "double suspension" approach that China has proposed – the DPRK suspends its nuclear-related activities and the US suspends its military drills with the Republic of Korea and both return to negotiations, the US has shown little interest. It is anticipated that Trump will further coordinate to strengthen US allies’ stances on the DPRK nuclear issue and persuade them to intensify pressure on the DPRK. As for Japan, it will further adjust its stance in accordance with the US as it faces the practical threat from the nuclear issue and seeks to justify its military expansion on the pretense of the issue.

Whether symbolically or substantially, Trump’s visit will serve as a stabilizer for the US-Japan relationship which has seen certain fluctuation since Trump assumed office. However, the existing cooperation cannot conceal the trade disputes which are the Trump government’s key concerns and simply would not be erased by one state visit. The trade issue that separates US and Japan will continuously affect the two countries’ relationships. 

In addition, the two countries’ completely different attitudes on regional and multilateral trade arrangements, including TPP, will persistently exert long-lasting influences which can hardly be eliminated in the short term. As with the DPRK nuclear issue, history has proved that merely relying on sanctions cannot solve the problem, and the US and Japan’s toughening of stances on the issue will only lead to further deterioration of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. 

(Hou Jun holds a Ph.D in international relations from China Foreign Affairs University; Liu Jianna is a media analyst at China Daily. The article reflects the authors’ opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN.)