Syria Conflict: Thousands of civilians expected to flee if Idlib offensive begins
Updated 14:15, 09-Sep-2018
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Now moving to Syria, fear is mounting over the fate of civilians, once the Syrian government and Russian forces carry out an anticipated offensive in Idlib. Some observers and analysts are warning the operation could create further humanitarian disasters. But as one of the last strongholds controlled by insurgents, Idlib is currently the main target for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. CGTN's Michal Bardavid has more details on the significance of an offensive in the province.
All eyes are turned to Syria's Northwest Idlib province. It is one of the last rebel-held territories. Taking back Idlib from opposition forces may bring Syrian President Bashar al-Assad closer to victory in this eight-year-old war.
HUSEYIN BEYAZIT SECURITY EXPERT "Idlib's location is very strategic, it is very close to Turkey, but also is the cross point of the road that leads to Iraq, Syria and Jordan. If geography determines strategy, this location is definitely a strategic one."
This week, Russia carried out airstrikes in Idlib province and its defense ministry says they have been targeting "terrorist locations". Turkish, Russian and Iranian officials are set to meet in Tehran on Friday to discuss options in Idlib. The three countries have been acting as guarantor states within the Astana peace process and Turkey has 12 observation posts around Idlib province within their agreement. Turkey has also increased its military presence with additional tanks along the Syrian border. Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that opposition groups who are ready to hold dialogue with the Syrian government should be separated from terrorists. Over the weekend, Russian naval forces carried out massive military drills in the Mediterranean Sea. Some analysts emphasize these exercises have strong political messages.
HUSEYIN BEYAZIT SECURITY EXPERT "First of all, what is the main aim of these drills? it is to say 'if you come here, I will respond'. In international relations, we call this showing your flag. So with the use of 'drills', it is to give this message to any potential tornado aircraft launched from Cyprus or from US missiles from ships."
The US has issued its own warning, stating that in case of any signs of chemical attacks, Washington will take action. While Russian officials had earlier stated they expect rebels to stage such an attack. Around half of Idlib's current population is already made up of displaced people. Once the offensive begins, hundreds of thousands are expected to flee.
MICHAL BARDAVID ANTALYA "The Turkish government is concerned the offensive could lead to a new flow of refugees to the border, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he believes civilians fleeing the fighting won't have many options and so a large proportion will likely head to Turkey."
Turkey is already hosting over 3.5 million refugees, in case of a new refugee influx, efforts are expected to be made on the Syrian side of the border.
IZZET SAHIN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND HUMANITARIAN DIPLOMACY COORDINATOR IHH HUMANITARIAN RELIEF FOUNDATION "I believe in the case that an attack causes a refugee flow. The priority for Turkey and international aid organizations will be to create a secure area close to the Turkish border and to protect and support refugees there instead."
And for those who decide to stay in the area, difficult days are ahead. Civilians inside Idlib have reportedly been making their own preparations by creating makeshift gas masks, building shelters and stockpiling on food supplies. Michal Bardavid, CGTN, Antalya, Turkey.